$8.05 Billion Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expire Today, Market Braces for Volatility

Today, approximately $8.05 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire, prompting crypto market participants to brace for potential volatility. The significant volume and notional value of these expiring options increase the likelihood of influencing short-term market trends. The put-to-call ratios and maximum pain points provide valuable insights into potential market directions.

The notional value of today’s expiring Bitcoin options is $7.24 billion, with 77,642 contracts expiring. The put-to-call ratio for these options is 0.73, indicating a higher prevalence of call options over put options. The maximum pain point for these expiring options is $86,000, which is the price at which the greatest number of holders would incur financial losses.

In addition to Bitcoin options, 458,926 Ethereum options contracts are set to expire today. These expiring options have a notional value of $808.3 million, a put-to-call ratio of 0.74, and a maximum pain point of $1,900. The number of expiring Ethereum options today is significantly higher than last week, when 177,130 contracts with a notional value of $279.789 million expired.

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading well above its maximum pain level of $86,000 at $93,471. Meanwhile, Ethereum is trading below its strike price of $1,900 at $1,764. This positioning suggests potential for short-term price consolidation or volatility, as the maximum pain level often acts as a magnet for price due to smart money actions. The dense clustering of open interest around $80,000 to $90,000 for Bitcoin and around $1,800 to $2,000 for Ethereum indicates high trader activity near these levels.

Traders are selling cash-secured put options on Bitcoin, using stablecoins to collect premiums while positioning to buy BTC at lower prices. This reflects a long-term bullish outlook. The highest open interest for BTC options is around the $100,000 strike price, indicating strong market expectations of Bitcoin reaching this level. However, data on a prediction platform shows traders estimating only a 16% chance of BTC hitting $100,000 in April.

The Cumulative delta (CD) across BTC and related ETF options reached $9 billion, showing high sensitivity to Bitcoin price changes and suggesting potential volatility as market makers hedge their positions. This aligns with remarks from analysts that hedge funds often farm a risk-free yield using arbitrage, which can intensify Bitcoin’s sell-off once the trade dies.

There has been a surge in Bitcoin call option buying for April to June 2025 expiries, with investors targeting strikes between $90,000 and $110,000. This bullish market sentiment was likely driven by FOMO as the BTC price extended beyond $90,000. Analysts also highlight a market stabilization effect from a policy reversal on April 9, which reduced global market volatility and potentially encouraged a rotation of investments from gold to crypto, contributing to the Bitcoin price recovery.

However, not all activity leading up to Bitcoin’s recovery involved new money or a fresh capital influx. According to an analysis, half of it involved rolling up existing positions, indicating strategic adjustments by traders. This suggests that while there is bullish sentiment, traders are also making strategic moves to manage their positions effectively.