NOT -7256.86% in 1 Year Amid Sharp Price Deterioration

On SEP 1 2025, NOT dropped by 17.32% within 24 hours to reach $0.001751, NOT dropped by 431.65% within 7 days, dropped by 125.64% within 1 month, and dropped by 7256.86% within 1 year. The steep decline has drawn significant market attention, with investors and analysts scrutinizing the token’s technical structure and underlying demand dynamics. The recent performance indicates a pronounced shift in sentiment, with bearish momentum intensifying across all timeframes.

Over the past month, the token has lost over a third of its value, with daily trading patterns reflecting heightened volatility and reduced liquidity. This decline has been consistent with broader technical indicators, including a breakdown below key support levels and a divergence in momentum metrics. The absence of a meaningful short-term recovery has led some participants to question the token's long-term viability, particularly in light of the accelerating sell-off.

Analysts project a continued bearish trend unless a strong catalyst emerges to reverse the negative momentum. Given the recent drop, the market is now pricing in a prolonged bearish bias, with several metrics pointing to oversold conditions and a lack of buying pressure. The 200-day moving average has acted as a resistance, and failure to reclaim this level could signal a deeper correction. Additionally, on-chain data suggests that large holders are reducing their exposure, adding to the downward pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtesting strategy examines the token’s price behavior under a set of predefined entry and exit conditions. The strategy assumes a long position is taken when the token crosses above a 50-period exponential moving average, with an exit triggered by a close below this level. Stops and profit targets are dynamically adjusted based on the 10-period ATR, aiming to capture directional moves while limiting exposure to adverse price swings. The strategy would be applied over a historical period spanning the past 365 days, with performance metrics such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown evaluated to determine its viability. Given the recent price deterioration and the observed breakdown in key technical indicators, the backtest is expected to reveal a low success rate, reinforcing the prevailing bearish view. The integration of volume and order flow data could further refine the signals, although the current environment suggests limited opportunity for trend-following approaches.