71% Odds of October 1 Shutdown as Lawmakers Stall Funding Deal

The probability of a U.S. government shutdown occurring by October 1, 2025, stands at 71% according to the prediction market platform Polymarket, reflecting heightened uncertainty over congressional funding negotiations. This figure, derived from a market with $920,063 in trading volume, indicates a significant likelihood of a partial or full shutdown triggered by a lapse in appropriations. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a shutdown by October 1, excluding closures due to holidays or weather.

The political impasse between Democrats and Republicans has intensified as lawmakers struggle to agree on a funding plan. House Republicans have proposed a seven-week extension through November 21, but Democrats have resisted due to provisions affecting healthcare subsidies and Medicaid. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer emphasized the need for bipartisan compromise, warning that intransigence could lead to a shutdown. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s data underscores investor sentiment, with traders allocating over $1.79 million to a broader 2025 shutdown market, which currently prices a 43% chance of a shutdown by December 31.

Economic analysts highlight the potential consequences of a prolonged shutdown. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon estimates a weekly $7 billion drag on the U.S. economy for each week of disruption, compounding existing headwinds in sectors like labor and housing. A suspension could also delay critical economic data releases, such as the October jobs report, complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions. Additionally, financial regulators like the SEC and CFTC would operate with reduced capacity, potentially stalling IPO approvals and market oversight.

The impact on essential services and public programs remains a focal point. While Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits would continue under mandatory funding, administrative functions like benefit verification and Medicare card replacements could face disruptions. Air traffic controllers and TSA personnel would work without pay during a shutdown, though the U.S. Postal Service would remain operational.

Market participants are closely monitoring the duration of any shutdown, as historical precedents show that even brief closures can amplify uncertainty. The 2018-2019 34-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, disrupted over 800,000 federal workers and strained consumer confidence. Current prediction markets suggest a median shutdown length of five days, but analysts caution that extended closures could exacerbate economic risks.

Source: [1] Over 43% chance of U.S. government shutdown in 2025: Polymarket (https://www.gate.com/news/detail/13429319) [2] US government shutdown by October 1? (https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-by-october-1) [3] Government shutdown chances as Republicans roll out… (https://www.newsweek.com/government-shutdown-2025-likelihood-deadline-fall-betting-odds-2130822) [4] How a U.S. government shutdown might impact financial markets (https://www.fastcompany.com/91410702/u-s-could-soon-headed-government-shutdown-how-financial-markets-might-react) [5] The federal government is heading toward a shutdown. Here's… (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-september-2025-economic-impact-social-security-tsa/) [6] Government Shutdown Likely On October 1, Per… (https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2025/09/25/government-shutdown-likely-on-october-1-per-prediction-markets/)