6 Saudi Tankers Already Detouring Around Africa as Red Sea War Cuts 24-Day Runs to 56

Red Sea detours are turning oil transit into a real cost premium

This is where the Red Sea stops looking like a headline risk and starts mattering for oil economics. Six Saudi-flagged tankers are routing via the Cape of Good Hope, extending a journey that can stretch from 24 to 56 days. On one recent Sunday, only eleven commodity vessels passed through Bab el-Mandeb, the lowest level in months. That points to a market absorbing higher insurance, delay, and routing costs in real time.

The tension is not limited to one corridor. Traffic through Hormuz remains well below normal, with about 100 tankers still stranded in the Gulf. With both the Red Sea and the Gulf under pressure, oil markets have more reason to treat this as a logistics problem rather than a side story.

Tanker reroutes create freight pressure even if crude demand does not rise

When safe passage breaks, the bigger opportunity often sits in shipping, not just in crude. Longer routes do not raise oil demand, but they do tie up vessels for longer. A Taiwan-to-Yanbu run that normally takes 24 days can stretch to 56 days when tankers go around Africa. In tanker markets, that acts like an effective loss of capacity.

That pressure lands on a VLCC market that was already showing structural softness. Nearly 44% of the global VLCC fleet is older than 15 years, and more than 900 tankers are subject to Western sanctions. Older assets and sanctioned ships do not always translate into flexible, easily available capacity, which can tighten the usable fleet even without a spike in crude volumes.

The spot market is already tightening

Oil shipping costs had climbed to about $130,000 a day for VLCCs in Reuters' December reporting. In Singapore, TD3C had risen by nearly 150% since the start of the year, showing that freight rates were reacting to tighter conditions rather than waiting for a future scenario.

The same pattern shows up elsewhere. Baltic-to-India crude trips have risen in August and reached about $6 million per one-way trip. The broader point is simple: when trade flows get longer or less predictable, more vessel capacity is needed per barrel moved.

What keeps the tanker rerating trade alive

The bullish case depends less on permanent closure and more on persistent uncertainty. Riyadh confirmed the Encelia was struck while sailing in the Red Sea. The IRGC also said it struck and disabled two tankers in the southern corridor. As long as incidents and warnings keep landing near key routes, charterers may keep paying up for perceived certainty.

There is a counterargument, though. Saudi Arabia announced a 14-country maritime coalition on July 30 to protect the Bab el-Mandeb, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden. Windward also noted that 22 Chinese-linked vessels transited Bab el-Mandeb and called at Saudi ports between July 20 and August 2 without incident. That does not prove the corridor is fully secure, but it does show that traffic can still move when operators judge the risk manageable.

What would strengthen or weaken the freight bid

Factors that could keep the bid alive: - Fresh pressure on tankers in the Red Sea or southern corridor - Continued reroutes instead of a return to shorter transit times, with eleven commodity vessels passed through Bab el-Mandeb still reflecting caution - Ongoing Hormuz congestion, with traffic through Hormuz remains well below normal and roughly 100 tankers stranded in the Gulf

Factors that could weaken it: - A credible improvement in security that restores confidence in the Red Sea shortcut - Faster normalization of Bab el-Mandeb traffic - A meaningful easing of Hormuz congestion and the backlog of tankers in the Gulf