57% Kalshi Bettors Back Google Gemini as 2025 Top AI Model

The market for predicting the future of AI is showing strong consensus, with 57% of participants on the prediction platform Kalshi backing Google's Gemini as the leading text model by the end of 2025[1]. This shift in betting reflects Gemini’s growing influence in a rapidly evolving field, as it outpaces other major players like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and xAI’s Grok. ChatGPT’s support has dipped to 20%, while Grok’s has fallen to 15%, both declines from earlier figures[2].

Gemini’s rise in the betting markets coincides with a series of recent improvements and feature updates introduced by Google. These enhancements include a new “storybook mode,” refined reasoning capabilities, and temporary chat sessions that do not store user history. The company has used these updates to strengthen Gemini’s appeal and functionality, which bettors are interpreting as a clear signal of the model’s advancing capabilities[1].

The Kalshi market for this prediction has attracted $7.4 million in total volume, with the outcome to be officially determined by year-end. The LM Arena Leaderboard will serve as the authoritative source for verifying the final result. This prediction scenario underscores how betting platforms are increasingly used as a gauge of market sentiment and public expectations in the AI space[3].

While prediction markets do not replace rigorous technical evaluation, they offer a real-time read on how players and investors view the trajectory of different models. Gemini’s strong showing indicates a belief that its recent advancements could give it a competitive edge in a domain where performance, reliability, and innovation are paramount[1].

The AI landscape is intensifying, with companies racing to establish dominance across multiple applications, from content generation to search. Recent moves, such as Perplexity’s $34.5 billion bid for Google’s Chrome browser, highlight the strategic value of access to large datasets and search traffic—key resources for training and refining AI models. In this context, Google’s position with Gemini appears to be strengthening, supported both by its technical updates and by betting market indicators[2].

However, regulatory headwinds could complicate the path to dominance for all major players. Antitrust concerns are growing, with Google and Meta both facing legal scrutiny that could influence the broader market. These legal challenges may impact not only the companies’ operations but also the development timelines and competitive positioning of their AI models[2].

The betting market’s preference for Gemini reflects a collective expectation that the model will outperform its rivals in the coming year. Yet, as with any prediction, actual performance and peer-reviewed assessments will ultimately determine whether these expectations are met. For now, the market’s confidence in Gemini is clear, and it will be closely watched as the year progresses.

Source:

[1] Kalshi Bettors Predict Gemini Will Be Top AI Model of 2025

https://cointelegraph.com/news/57-percent-kalshi-bettors-predict-gemini-top-ai-text-model-2025

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[3] Strong Crop of Earnings Eases Investors' Economic ...

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