S&P 500 Surges 1% as Iran-Israel Ceasefire Boosts Oil Prices

On the evening of June 25, U.S. stocks opened relatively flat, with the S&P 500 index nearing its historical high. Investors are assessing the latest developments in the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues to testify before Congress.

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks closed higher. The S&P 500 index surged by more than 1%, currently just under 1% away from its historical high. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by more than 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by over 500 points. The Nasdaq-100 Index closed 1.5% higher, setting a new closing record.

Despite concerns among investors about the uncertainty of inflation resurgence and consumer weakness due to Trump's tariffs, U.S. stocks have continued to rebound from a significant pullback in early April. The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has led to a sharp drop in oil prices over the past two days, boosting U.S. stocks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures plummeted by 6% on Tuesday.

Investors are closely monitoring the latest developments in the Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement. The conflict between Israel and Iran has become the latest obstacle for the market this year. Traders are hoping that the fragile ceasefire agreement brokered by U.S. President Trump can hold. The ceasefire agreement brokered by Trump appears to be holding on Wednesday. Trump's Middle East envoy stated on Tuesday evening that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are "promising," and Washington hopes to reach a long-term peace agreement. However, doubts about the stability of the ceasefire agreement remain.

Despite the recent slowdown in the global market's upward trend, it has not yet significantly reversed its previous gains. This is largely due to the fact that even at the height of the conflict, the security of Iran's oil infrastructure and its critical transport route, the Strait of Hormuz, has never been seriously threatened.

Investors will also focus on the new home sales data released earlier in the day, as well as Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. In terms of earnings, traders will track the quarterly reports of General Mills, Paychex, and Micron Technology.

Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach to interest rates as price pressures from tariffs begin to emerge. However, he also noted that lower-than-expected inflation data or a weak labor market could prompt the central bank to cut rates earlier.

On Wednesday, Powell will continue his testimony before the Senate, and investors will be looking for any hints about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The previous day, Powell suggested that the likelihood of advancing the first rate cut of 2025 to July is small, which should provide some form of bottom support for oil prices from the demand side.

Loop Capital predicts that NVIDIA's market capitalization could reach 600 billion dollars. The firm stated that the artificial intelligence trend, which has driven NVIDIA's stock price higher in recent years, shows no signs of slowing down and could propel the chipmaker's market capitalization beyond that of other companies, ultimately reaching 600 billion dollars. This valuation is more than 65% higher than the company's current market capitalization of 360 billion dollars.

Analyst Ananda Baruah wrote in a report, "We are entering the next 'golden wave' of generative AI applications, and NVIDIA is at the forefront of another round of stronger-than-expected demand." He raised NVIDIA's target price from 175 dollars to 250 dollars.

France's consumer watchdog ordered Tesla to stop advertising its cars as FSD (Full Self-Driving), stating that if Tesla continues to engage in such "deceptive marketing practices," it will be fined 50,000 euros per day.

Wells Fargo expects Microsoft's AI revenue to exceed 100 billion dollars and raised its target price to 585 dollars.

Google launched its first Gemini AI coding tool to attract developers.

FedEx's first-quarter guidance was disappointing, and it did not provide full-year guidance.

BlackBerry's first-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, and it raised its full-year revenue forecast.

NIO's Firefly has launched its BaaS battery leasing program ahead of schedule.

JPMorgan upgraded New Oriental's rating to "Overweight."

ZTO Express has invested 600 million dollars to establish an airline company.