U.S. S&P 500 e-mini futures up 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.02%, Dow futures up 0.06%

U.S. S&P 500 e-mini futures up 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.02%, Dow futures up 0.06%

U.S. stock market futures indicated a mixed opening on Friday, July 2, 2025, as investors braced for the August 1 tariff deadline. S&P 500 e-mini futures rose by 0.07%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.02%, and Dow futures increased by 0.06% [2].

The S&P 500 index closed 0.07% higher on Thursday, reaching another all-time high of 6,381.31, before ending the session nearly flat. The index is expected to open slightly higher today, continuing its short-term consolidation near record highs [1]. The Nasdaq 100, which gained 0.25% on Thursday, remains above a month-long upward trendline, supported by optimism ahead of key quarterly earnings releases. However, the recent price action may be forming a potential topping pattern [1].

Investor sentiment has slightly deteriorated, as reflected in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 36.8% of individual investors are bullish, while 34.0% are bearish [1]. The S&P 500 broke above its recent trading range on Thursday, suggesting bullish momentum on the daily chart, but risks of a potential short-term top remain [1].

The VIX (Volatility Index) fell to a new local low of 14.95 yesterday, marking its lowest level since late February. This reflects declining investor fear but also raises the possibility of a short-term market top [1]. Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, and rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns [1].

Oil gained 1.20% on Thursday, bouncing from the key $65 support level, driven by optimism around U.S. trade agreements, hopes for more tariff-related developments, and declining inventory data. Today, oil is up another 0.5% [1]. Markets gained on positive trade sentiment, with recent U.S. agreements with Japan and progress toward a deal with the EU helping to boost economic outlook and oil demand [1].

The U.S. may permit Chevron and other partners to resume limited operations in sanctioned Venezuela, potentially boosting exports by over 200,000 barrels/day, helping ease heavy crude shortages [1]. Russia plans tighter gasoline export controls to curb domestic fuel price inflation, which could add further pressure to global fuel markets [1].

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% in Thursday's session, but stayed close to its all-time high, last hit in December. All three major indexes were poised to cap the week on a high note, as a flurry of tariff agreements between the United States and its trading partners helped drive markets to new highs [2]. Expectations were rife that the European Union would soon sign an agreement with Washington, while negotiations with South Korea gathered momentum ahead of the August 1 deadline set for most countries [2].

A spate of upbeat second-quarter earnings also supported Wall Street's record run. Of the 152 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings as of Thursday, 80.3% reported above analyst expectations [2]. However, there were a few setbacks during the week. Heavyweights Tesla TSLA and General Motors GM stumbled and were on track for their steepest weekly declines in nearly two months [2]. Intel INTC fell 7.5% in premarket trading on Friday after the chipmaker forecast steeper third-quarter losses than Street expectations and announced plans to slash jobs [2].

All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week, with bets indicating that policymakers are likely to keep interest rates unchanged as they evaluate the effects of tariffs on inflation [2]. The central bank is under immense scrutiny from the White House, with President Trump leading a censure campaign against Chair Jerome Powell for not reducing borrowing costs, while often hinting that he would sack the top policymaker [2].

Uncertainty over Powell's tenure is prompting investors to assess potential market reactions in the event of a change in leadership [2].

References:

[1] https://www.investorideas.com/news/2025/main/07252PaulRejczak-SP500-Record-Highs.asp
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3TM0W3:0-wall-st-set-for-firm-start-as-investors-brace-for-august-1-deadline/