5 Bear Market Signals Are Flashing for Bitcoin This January

Bitcoin is exhibiting characteristics of a 'bear market rally' in January 2026, with recent price action resembling patterns observed in 2022. The asset has risen 21% from November lows but remains below its 365-day moving average. This technical setup raises concerns among analysts about the sustainability of the current rebound according to analysis.

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin crossed below its 365-day MA in late 2025, triggering a 19% drop, followed by a 19% rebound. This mirrors a similar 2022 scenario where the price declined 27% before a 47% rally was rejected at the same technical level. The $101,000 level is now a key area of focus for the market as reported.

Exchange inflows have increased this week, indicating that sellers are exiting in anticipation of further declines. This behavior is consistent with bear market dynamics and suggests ongoing downward pressure in the near term according to market data.

Why Is the Move Happening?

Bitcoin's current technical position indicates the market remains in a bear phase. The 365-day moving average is a key metric for long-term trend identification. When the price remains below this average, it signals ongoing bearish sentiment, despite short-term rebounds according to technical analysis.

The 2022 bear market followed a similar pattern, where a strong rally was ultimately rejected at the same MA level. This historical reference is now being used to frame expectations for 2026, with many analysts forecasting a potential decline toward $65,000 as market analysis shows.

How Are Markets Responding?

Market participants are showing mixed reactions. While some view the 21% rebound as a sign of a new bull phase, others are cautious, citing the lack of confirmation above $101,000. The key resistance level is already home to multiple hurdles, which could delay or prevent a sustainable breakout according to market observations.

On-chain data further reinforces bearish sentiment. The increased inflows into exchanges suggest traders are preparing for a potential sell-off. This behavior is typical during bear markets, as investors liquidate positions to mitigate losses as data indicates.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's behavior around $101,000. A sustained break above this level could signal a shift in sentiment. However, a rejection could reinforce the bearish narrative and lead to further declines according to technical analysis.

In addition to technical indicators, on-chain activity will remain a key focus. Exchange inflows, wallet activity, and large holder behavior can provide early signals about the direction of the market. These metrics are essential for understanding the broader dynamics between accumulation and distribution as on-chain data shows.

Investors are advised to remain cautious as they navigate this volatile period. While the 21% rebound is encouraging, it is not enough to confirm a lasting recovery. Market fundamentals and macroeconomic factors will also play a role in determining Bitcoin's path forward according to market analysis.

Bitcoin remains sensitive to global macroeconomic events. Recent geopolitical tensions, such as Trump's tariff threats, have historically caused sharp corrections in the market. Investors should be prepared for further volatility as these factors continue to evolve according to market reports.