ETC +4.81% Amid Volatile Short-Term Correction

On SEP 3 2025, ETC rose by 4.81% within 24 hours to reach $21.14, following a broader short-term market correction. Despite this daily gain, the asset has declined by 47.8% over the past week, reflecting the ongoing bearish trend after a 67.7% increase in the last month. Over a 12-month horizon, ETC has seen a sharp decline of 1691.94%, highlighting the broader structural bear market that has affected most crypto assets.

The recent 24-hour rally is a sharp deviation from the weekly trend and may suggest short-term stabilization is occurring. However, this bounce has yet to break critical resistance levels, and indicators such as the RSI and MACD suggest the correction remains within a larger downtrend. The daily move is largely considered a technical rebound rather than a confirmation of a new bullish trend. Market participants remain cautious, with limited follow-through in volume and position data.

The weekly 47.8% drop has triggered multiple stop-loss mechanisms and has led to a retesting of key support levels. Traders are now monitoring a critical area near $19.50, which if broken, could initiate a larger pullback phase. In the 30-day context, the 67.7% rebound is seen as a bear-market correction pattern rather than a reversal. This suggests that while short-term buyers have stepped in, the long-term bearish thesis remains intact.

The 12-month decline of 1691.94% has significantly eroded investor sentiment and has led to widespread profit-taking and liquidation events. Analysts project that unless ETC can establish a new price floor above $18.00, the asset remains at risk of further depreciation. The 24-hour gain, while encouraging, must be viewed in the context of the broader trend and should not be interpreted as a trend reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtesting strategy analyzed the potential effectiveness of a short-term trading approach using technical indicators aligned with ETC's price behavior. The strategy focused on a combination of RSI divergence and MACD crossover signals to identify potential reversal points within a volatile market. The hypothesis assumed that in the context of a broader bear market, short-term corrections could be exploited through strategic entries and exits based on momentum shifts.

The strategy was tested using historical data over a 90-day period and simulated a fixed stop-loss and take-profit range. The goal was to determine if the selected indicators could effectively capture rebounds within the downtrend without being overly exposed to the larger bearish movement. The results demonstrated a moderate success rate in identifying short-term bounces, particularly during periods of high volatility like the current correction. This suggests that while long-term bearish conditions persist, tactical entries based on confirmed divergence and momentum shifts could offer limited risk-reward opportunities.