After 3 Earnings Misses, Why Wall Street Still Won't Bear-Trap Coinbase

Coinbase's third straight miss hurt, but the quarter was not one-dimensional

Coinbase just posted its third straight quarter miss. Revenue was reported around $1.2 billion to $1.22 billion versus roughly $1.3 billion expected, and the company posted a $359.5 million net loss. Add in soft crypto markets and weaker trading activity, and the sell reaction was understandable: the stock fell more than 7% in after-hours trading.

The real debate is what investors do with that disappointment. Bears can point to a pattern: three misses in a row argue for caution. Bulls will counter that a weak quarter in a weak tape is not the same as a broken longer-term setup. That tension is reflected in coverage: the consensus rating is "Hold", with 18 buys, 12 holds, and 3 sells.

Despite the weak print, many analysts still do not appear to be calling a full bear market for the stock. The average 12-month price target is $221.31, implying 51.31% upside from current levels. That does not mean optimism is effortless. It does suggest that, for many in coverage, the headline miss is being treated as cyclical pain rather than permanent damage.

That view is not hard to understand. Even in a down quarter, Coinbase showed signs that its platform advantage may still be intact. And when the market improves, trading volume and engagement can rebound faster than consensus models assume.

Coinbase's market-share gain kept the bull case alive

Share gains matter most when the market is soft

Coinbase reported a 10.3% crypto trading volume market share, marking its third consecutive quarter of gains. At the same time, management said industrywide spot trading volumes slid more than 20% and the broader crypto market cap contracted. Bulls read that combination as meaningful: if flow is consolidating into the platform traders trust most, then Coinbase is not starting from zero when sentiment recovers.

Revenue is less dependent on Bitcoin and single activity buckets

Coinbase also said 88% of net revenue is non-BTC spot trading, while subscription and services revenue represented 48% of total net revenue. That does not make earnings stable. But it does make the business look less like a pure Bitcoin trading proxy than it once did.

There was also evidence of newer growth pockets. Prediction-market contracts and revenue grew 106% quarter over quarter. That is still a small part of the total business, but it gives bulls a near-term narrative catalyst beyond headline trading volume.

Stablecoin float and cost discipline buy time

Average USDC held in Coinbase Products reached an all-time high of $20 billion. For investors, that matters beyond the direct revenue contribution: it points to embedded float, user stickiness, and another channel that could support revenue if balances remain inside Coinbase's ecosystem.

Cost discipline matters too. Coinbase posted its 14th consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA, which lowers the bar for the next quarter. The company does not need a spectacular rebound in activity to stabilize the story; it needs a normal recovery plus continued expense control.

The main risk is that competition and churn delay the rerating

Bears still have a credible counter. Compass Point specifically cited increasing stablecoin competition and noted that weaker subscription-and-services revenue can hit valuation harder because investors pay a higher premium for recurring fees.

That keeps the case conditional. The bullish read works if trading activity improves, market share holds, and stablecoin-related revenue stays resilient. If those pieces weaken together, the rerating case gets delayed and the stock remains more vulnerable to crypto's next choppy stretch.