21Shares Files Spot Dogecoin ETF Amid Favorable Regulatory Climate

21Shares, a prominent asset manager, has officially filed for a spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency landscape. The filing, submitted to Nasdaq on Tuesday, follows an initial S-1 registration by 21Shares on April 9, which also announced an exclusive partnership with the House of Doge to develop Dogecoin-backed financial products. This move underscores the growing institutional interest in Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that was once dismissed as a joke but is now being taken seriously within the U.S. financial system.

The regulatory climate in 2025 has shifted favorably for cryptocurrencies. The appointment of Paul Atkins as the new SEC Chairman under President Donald Trump has led to a more pro-crypto stance. Atkins has criticized the previous administration's approach, which he believes stifled innovation through excessive regulatory hurdles. This new leadership has already facilitated the approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and spot Ethereum ETFs in July 2024. Analysts believe this friendlier regulatory environment significantly improves the chances for altcoin ETFs, particularly Dogecoin, which was given a 75% approval probability by analysts earlier this year.

The likelihood of a Dogecoin ETF approval is high, given the SEC's recent history of approving Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, as well as the Trump administration's favorable stance toward crypto. The approval process involves a critical review period once the 19b-4 filing is acknowledged and published in the Federal Register. Assuming no major setbacks, the earliest potential approval could come later in 2025.

Historically, ETF approvals for crypto assets have had a bullish impact on their respective token prices. When the spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in early 2024, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 40% in a few weeks. If Dogecoin’s ETF gets approved, it could trigger a similar rally, especially given its current modest price around $0.18. A successful Dogecoin ETF could attract institutional investors and reignite retail excitement, potentially pushing DOGE back toward its previous all-time highs and beyond. Conservative projections suggest that an ETF launch could drive DOGE to $0.30–$0.40 initially, with further upside if the broader crypto market remains bullish.

Dogecoin, created as a joke in 2013, has sustained its relevance through popularity, branding, and community support. Partnering with the Dogecoin Foundation and House of Doge adds credibility and infrastructure around the project, which may be exactly what institutional investors need to get serious about allocating funds into DOGE. However, investors must remember that Dogecoin remains highly volatile and more meme-driven compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum. Any ETF investment would still carry significant risk, albeit with potentially large rewards if mainstream adoption accelerates.

If the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF is approved—likely under the new SEC regime—Dogecoin could see an explosive upside movement. Based on historical ETF approval reactions and Dogecoin’s loyal fanbase, a price rally toward the $0.30–$0.50 range seems plausible by late 2025. However, as always in crypto markets, caution is key. External macro factors, regulatory updates, and broader market sentiment will all play crucial roles in shaping Dogecoin’s next big move.