2026 Toy Sector Outlook: Why 'Sticker' Fan Cohorts Signal Strong Growth Opportunities

The 2026 toy sector is poised for a transformative year, driven by a seismic shift in consumer demographics and strategic innovations among industry leaders. At the heart of this evolution lies the "sticker" fan cohort-a demographic of engaged adult consumers with high discretionary spending power. This group, often referred to as "kidults," is reshaping demand patterns, with purchases for recipients aged 18+ surging by 18% in 2025 compared to traditional toddler-focused markets. As macroeconomic tailwinds, including expanded SALT deductions and bonus depreciation incentives, bolster adult discretionary spending, the toy industry's strategic positioning around this cohort will determine which companies thrive.

Hasbro: Leveraging High-Engagement IP and Margin Resilience

Hasbro's dominance in the 2026 outlook is underpinned by its mastery of high-margin, entertainment-driven IP. The company's Wizards of the Coast division, particularly Magic: The Gathering, saw a 55% year-over-year sales increase in 2025, fueled by new releases and sustained demand for backlist titles. This segment operates at margins between 44% and 48%, contributing to Hasbro's overall operating margin of 25.6% in Q3 2025. Jefferies analysts highlight Hasbro as a prime beneficiary of the "sticker" fan cohort, citing its upcoming product lines as catalysts for sustained growth.

Beyond gaming, Hasbro is expanding into adult-centric markets through strategic partnerships. Its multi-year licensing agreements with casino operators like Aristocrat Technologies and Bally's signal a bold move to monetize iconic brands in the adult gaming sector. Meanwhile, a partnership with ADA and Opptra is accelerating Hasbro's entry into Southeast Asia's e-commerce boom, leveraging AI-driven strategies to tap into the region's growing "kidult" population. These initiatives underscore Hasbro's ability to adapt its IP portfolio to macroeconomic trends while maintaining margin resilience.

Mattel and Spin Master: Navigating Challenges and Turnaround Potential

In contrast, Mattel and Spin Master face headwinds in 2026, though both are pursuing aggressive turnaround strategies. Mattel's Q3 2025 results fell short of expectations, with revenue and profit targets missed due to tariffs and shifting retailer behaviors. However, the company is pivoting toward entertainment-driven growth, planning one to two film releases annually, including an animated Barbie movie and a live-action Hot Wheels film planning one to two film releases. A joint venture with NetEase (Mattel163) aims to bolster its digital gaming portfolio, while international gross billings rose 9% in Q2 2025, driven by strong performances in Asia Pacific and Latin America.

Spin Master, meanwhile, is recalibrating its supply chain and product lineup after a 17% revenue decline in Q3 2025. The company is reducing reliance on China by diversifying manufacturing and introducing innovation-driven products like Unicorn Academy and a reimagined Bakugan. CEO Christina Miller emphasized that creativity and storytelling will remain central to Spin Master's strategy, aligning with the "sticker" fan cohort's appetite for collectibles and nostalgia-driven content.

The Role of Adult Discretionary Spending and Industry Trends

The broader toy sector's growth in 2026 hinges on adult discretionary spending, which now outpaces traditional demographics. Circana reports that adult consumers spent billions on collectibles, premium building sets, and licensed products in 2025. For example, Lego's Botanicals collection and brands like Labubu and Jellycat have captured significant market share by appealing to stress-relief and creative engagement.

Looking ahead, the U.S. toy market is projected to grow at a 3.39% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, driven by categories like games, puzzles, and licensed toys. Innovation in 2026 will focus on tech-infused play, STEAM education, and sustainable materials. Companies that fail to adapt to these trends risk being left behind, while those like Hasbro-already embedded in the "sticker" fan ecosystem-stand to benefit disproportionately.

Conclusion: Strategic Positioning as a Competitive Edge

The 2026 toy sector will reward companies that recognize the "sticker" fan cohort as a core growth driver. Hasbro's ability to monetize high-engagement IP, maintain margin resilience, and expand into adult-centric markets positions it as a clear leader. Mattel and Spin Master, while facing near-term challenges, are investing in entertainment partnerships and product innovation to reclaim relevance. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: strategic alignment with adult discretionary spending and entertainment-driven demand will define success in the evolving toy landscape.