The 2026 Semiconductor Winners: Mizuho's Strategic Picks in AI, Memory, and Interconnect Sectors

The semiconductor industry stands at a pivotal inflection point in 2026, driven by the accelerating AI revolution, reshoring of manufacturing, and evolving infrastructure demands. Mizuho's strategic analysis of the sector underscores three key areas of focus: AI accelerators and interconnects, memory innovation, and wafer fabrication equipment (WFE). By dissecting the firm's high-conviction stock selections and sector positioning, investors can identify opportunities to capitalize on the next phase of the AI supercycle.

AI Interconnects: The New Bottleneck and Growth Engine

Mizuho's 2026 outlook highlights a critical shift in AI infrastructure bottlenecks-from GPUs to the components that enable their performance. Optical interconnects and high-speed data transmission technologies are now central to scaling AI workloads. According to a report by , Mizuho has identified Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) and Credo Technology (NASDAQ:CRDO) as key players in this space, citing their leadership in optical components and high-speed signaling solutions.

This strategic focus aligns with broader industry trends. As AI models grow in complexity, the demand for faster, more efficient interconnects to link GPUs and data centers is surging. For instance, LITE's expertise in laser-based optical modules and CRDO's advanced SerDes (serializer-deserializer) chips are critical for reducing latency and power consumption in AI clusters. Mizuho's emphasis on these names reflects a forward-looking bet on the infrastructure layer that will underpin next-generation AI deployments.

Memory Innovation: Samsung's Leadership and the HBM Boom

In the memory sector, Mizuho has positioned Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) as its "most compelling long idea" for 2026. The firm cites Samsung's dominance in GDDR7 technology and its potential to benefit from a shift in AI hardware demand. Notably, innovations like Groq's Language Processing Unit (LPU) could reduce reliance on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for inference tasks, favoring GDDR and SRAM instead- a trend that plays to Samsung's strengths.

The HBM market itself is set for explosive growth. Micron (NASDAQ:MU) and SK Hynix (OTC:HYQUF) are emerging as critical players, with Micron forecasting a $100 billion total addressable market for HBM by 2028. SK Hynix, in particular, is projected to capture 70% of the HBM4 market in 2026 as it supports Nvidia's Rubin platform. Mizuho's analysis also highlights Lam Research (NASDAQ:LAM) as a beneficiary, given its role in manufacturing equipment for HBM production by industry leaders like Samsung and Micron according to analysis.

Midcap names like Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) and Onto Innovation (NASDAQ:ONTI) are also gaining traction. Teradyne's testing equipment is seeing increased demand from HBM customers, while Onto Innovation's advanced packaging solutions are critical for HBM integration as market analysis indicates. These companies represent lower-risk, high-conviction plays in a sector poised for sustained growth.

Strategic Sector Positioning: ASML and the Reshoring Tailwind

Beyond specific stock picks, Mizuho's 2026 outlook emphasizes the broader semiconductor equipment sector, which stands to benefit from AI-driven demand and global reshoring efforts. ASML (OTC:ASMLF) is highlighted as a top semicap stock, given its monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools essential for manufacturing advanced AI chips. Analysts project a significant recovery in ASML's growth in 2027 as foundries like TSMC and Intel ramp up orders to meet AI capacity needs.

The firm also notes that wafer fabrication equipment sales are expected to grow nearly double-digit year-on-year by 2026, driven by both AI and geopolitical reshoring trends. This positions WFE players as critical enablers of the AI supercycle, with Mizuho advocating for a diversified approach to capture exposure across the supply chain.

Conclusion: A Sector in Transition, A Portfolio in Motion

Mizuho's 2026 semiconductor strategy reflects a nuanced understanding of the sector's evolving dynamics. By prioritizing AI interconnects, memory innovation, and equipment manufacturing, the firm has identified both established leaders and emerging disruptors. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: the next phase of the AI revolution will be defined not just by chips, but by the infrastructure and components that make them work. As Samsung, LITE, and ASML exemplify, strategic positioning in these areas offers a compelling path to outperformance in a rapidly transforming market.