2025 ETF Performance: Metals Miners Outperform as AI and Crypto Falter

The year 2025 marked a dramatic shift in global investment trends, with metals miners ETFs surging to record returns while AI and crypto-related assets struggled to keep pace. This divergence reflects a broader reallocation of capital driven by macroeconomic tailwinds, including inflationary pressures, central bank policy shifts, and a renewed appetite for tangible assets. As investors recalibrated their portfolios amid geopolitical uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny, the performance gap between physical commodities and speculative tech/digital assets widened significantly.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Inflation, Rate Cuts, and Safe-Haven Demand

The explosive gains in metals miners ETFs were fueled by a confluence of factors. The iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) surged 212% year-to-date, while the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) climbed 195%. Gold miners, including the Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), also delivered staggering returns of 199.3% and 190.6%, respectively according to market analysis. These gains were underpinned by a combination of inflationary pressures, aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets.

Central banks' dovish pivot in 2025, including multiple rate reductions, eroded the real value of cash and debt, pushing investors toward inflation-hedging commodities. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions-ranging from Middle East conflicts to trade disputes-amplified demand for gold and silver as stores of value according to market analysis. According to a report by the Schwab Center for Financial Research, the Materials sector, which includes precious metals miners, became a focal point for capital inflows as investors sought protection against macroeconomic volatility.

Sector Rotation: From Speculative Tech to Tangible Assets

The outperformance of metals miners contrasts sharply with the underperformance of AI and crypto ETFs. While AI-driven tech stocks initially benefited from strong demand for artificial intelligence, their gains paled in comparison to the metals sector. For instance, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) and Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF (VGT) posted robust returns, but these were overshadowed by the explosive growth in mining equities according to market reports.

Cryptocurrencies faced even steeper headwinds. The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI), a proxy for crypto-related exposure, gained only 72.9% year-to-date, despite Bitcoin reaching all-time highs earlier in the year according to market data. Ethereum, meanwhile, underperformed significantly, dropping nearly 17% in a single month according to a market report. Analysts attribute this to a combination of regulatory uncertainty, overvaluation concerns, and a broader rotation away from speculative assets.

The meme stock phenomenon, epitomized by the Roundhill Meme Stock ETF (MEME), also faltered as retail-driven hype gave way to profit-taking and institutional skepticism according to market analysis. This shift underscores a broader trend: investors are increasingly prioritizing assets with intrinsic value over high-growth narratives.

The Broader Picture: Defensive Rotation and Policy Risks

The 2025 market environment also saw a defensive rotation into sectors like Health Care and Utilities, as investors sought stability amid economic uncertainty according to market analysis. However, the most striking trend was the shift toward physical commodities. Silver, gold, and palladium surged as safe-haven demand outpaced concerns about industrial demand according to market analysis. This contrasts with the struggles of AI and crypto, which faced scrutiny over their exposure to interest rate sensitivity and regulatory risks.

Policy developments further exacerbated the divergence. The introduction of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which classified Bitcoin as a sovereign strategic asset, briefly boosted crypto prices but failed to reverse the long-term underperformance of digital assets according to market analysis. Meanwhile, metals miners benefited from a lack of regulatory headwinds and their role as inflation hedges.

Conclusion: A New Paradigm for 2026

The 2025 ETF performance landscape highlights a fundamental realignment of investor priorities. Metals miners, buoyed by macroeconomic tailwinds and safe-haven demand, outperformed even high-flying AI and crypto assets. As the Fed continues to navigate inflation and global uncertainties persist, the demand for tangible assets is likely to remain strong. For investors, this suggests a strategic shift toward commodities and cyclical sectors, while maintaining caution toward overvalued tech and digital assets.

In 2026, the question will be whether this rotation is a temporary correction or the start of a longer-term trend. For now, the data is clear: in a world of macroeconomic volatility, the allure of physical commodities remains unmatched.