The 2024/25 Bull Run: Could Bitcoin's Halving Ignite a New Era Despite Macroeconomic Headwinds?

The 2024 Bitcoin halving, historically a catalyst for price surges, initially underperformed compared to prior cycles. Yet, amid macroeconomic headwinds and a maturing market, structural catalysts are reshaping Bitcoin's trajectory. This analysis explores how macrocrypto convergence-where institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic policy intersect-could drive a sustained bull run, even as traditional supply-side dynamics lose dominance.

The 2024 Halving: A Muted Start, A Structural Shift

Bitcoin's 2024 halving saw a subdued price response, with the asset trading between $80,000 and $90,000 in the year following the event according to Kaiko research. This contrasts sharply with historical gains of 7,000% in 2012 and 541% in 2020 according to Kaiko research. The muted reaction was attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade tensions and risk-off sentiment according to Kaiko research. However, Bitcoin's 60-day volatility has declined by 55% since 2012 according to Phemex data, signaling a shift toward institutional-grade stability.

This volatility reduction is not a failure of the halving mechanism but a reflection of structural changes. Institutional demand, driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs and regulatory clarity, has outpaced new Bitcoin supply by a factor of 7.4 according to CryptoSlate. By Q4 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs managed over $115 billion in assets, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) capturing 48.5% market share according to PowerDrill analysis. These developments indicate that Bitcoin's price discovery is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic and institutional forces rather than speculative retail-driven cycles.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Policy, Inflation, and Institutional Demand

Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation and monetary policy missteps has gained traction. In Q4 2024, U.S. monetary easing and global inflation trends reinforced demand for Bitcoin as a store of value according to B2Broker analysis. Institutional allocations to Bitcoin are projected to reach $3 trillion over six years, driven by a 40:1 imbalance between Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply and institutional demand according to Data Insights.

Regulatory clarity has been pivotal. The repeal of SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121) in January 2025 allowed banks to offer crypto custody services according to Chronicle Journal, while Europe's MiCA framework provided a structured environment for institutional participation according to B2Broker analysis. These changes reduced compliance hurdles and spurred tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), including U.S. treasuries and money market funds, now valued at several billion dollars according to B2Broker analysis.

Structural Innovations: ETFs, Tokenization, and Layer-2 Solutions

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 marked a structural inflection point. By Q1 2024, institutional investment flows surged from $15 billion pre-approval to $75 billion according to PowerDrill analysis. ETF inflows injected $5–10 billion quarterly into the market according to CryptoSlate data, shifting Bitcoin's trading activity to U.S. market hours and reducing volatility according to Phemex data.

Layer-2 innovations, such as the Lightning Network, further enhanced Bitcoin's utility for everyday transactions and institutional use according to Chronicle Journal. Meanwhile, tokenization of RWAs has bridged traditional finance and blockchain, enabling programmable compliance and efficient settlement according to B2Broker analysis. These advancements position Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset but as a foundational component of a re-architected financial system.

The Path Forward: A $150,000–$250,000 Outlook

Despite the 2024 halving's muted initial response, the interplay of macroeconomic and structural factors suggests a robust bull case. Base-case models project Bitcoin reaching $150,000–$250,000 by 2026 according to SSRN research, driven by:
1. Institutional adoption: Corporate treasury allocations (e.g., MicroStrategy's 257,000 BTC purchase according to PowerDrill analysis) and ETF-driven demand.
2. Regulatory tailwinds: Continued clarity in North America and Europe, enabling broader participation.
3. Macroeconomic dynamics: Persistent inflation and monetary easing amplifying Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge.

The 2024 halving, while less dramatic in price terms, has catalyzed a maturing market where Bitcoin's scarcity is increasingly priced through institutional demand rather than speculative frenzies. This shift, coupled with macroeconomic convergence, positions Bitcoin for a sustained bull run-potentially ushering in a new era of crypto integration into global finance.