These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Ulta Beauty?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $8.58 a share, just 14 days from its upcoming earnings release on March 12, 2026.

Ulta Beauty's Earnings ESP sits at +7.47%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $8.58 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.98. ULTA is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

ULTA is just one of a large group of Retail and Wholesale stocks with a positive ESP figure. Dollar Tree (DLTR) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Slated to report earnings on March 16, 2026, Dollar Tree holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $2.58 a share 18 days from its next quarterly update.

For Dollar Tree, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.52 is +2.50%.

ULTA and DLTR's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

Should You Invest in Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA)?

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Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA): Free Stock Analysis Report

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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