Is $2 the Final Floor for XRP?

The XRP price has long been a focal point for investors navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market. As the token hovers near the $2 support level in late 2025, the question of whether this price represents a final floor or a temporary reprieve looms large. Drawing on technical resilience and on-chain liquidity dynamics, this analysis examines the forces at play to determine XRP's near-term trajectory.

Technical Patterns: A Bearish Bias with Mixed Signals

XRP's weekly chart reveals a megaphone pattern, a classic bearish formation characterized by converging trendlines that narrow as price consolidates. If the $2.00 level fails to hold, the pattern suggests a potential breakdown to $1.80, with a projected target of $0.88. Compounding this risk is a descending triangle pattern, which, if the $2.00 support is breached, could drive prices down 41% to $1.18.

However, technical indicators are not uniformly bearish. The Stochastic RSI is currently in an oversold territory on the weekly chart, a condition historically associated with bullish reversals. Additionally, the TD Sequential indicator has generated a buy signal, suggesting a potential rebound above $2.20 and toward $3. These conflicting signals highlight the precarious balance between short-term bearish momentum and potential oversold-driven rebounds.

On-Chain Liquidity: Institutional Inflows vs. Derivatives Weakness

While technical patterns lean bearish, on-chain liquidity data paints a nuanced picture. XRP ETF inflows have surged to over $756 million, reflecting institutional confidence and a potential floor for demand. This inflow contrasts sharply with derivatives market weakness: open interest has declined by 36% to $3.54 billion, and funding rates have turned negative, signaling increased bearish positioning.

Glassnode data further underscores the fragility of XRP's current support. Over 41.5% of holders are underwater, amplifying sell-side pressure. The 30-day EMA of daily realized losses has spiked to $75 million per day, levels not seen since April 2025. These metrics suggest that while institutional buying provides a buffer, speculative demand is waning, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown below $2.

Critical Support Levels and Whale Activity

Key support levels derived from UTXO realized price distribution-$1.91 and $1.73-serve as critical psychological barriers according to analysts. A failure to defend these levels could trigger a cascade of liquidations, particularly at the $1.75 and $1.60 liquidity zones highlighted in the liquidation heatmap according to data. Meanwhile, whale demand for XRP has reached a seven-year high, a bullish anomaly that could stabilize the price near $2 despite broader market weakness.

The Path Forward: A Delicate Equilibrium

XRP's fate hinges on its ability to hold key support levels while absorbing bearish pressure. If bulls defend $2.00 and $1.91, the Stochastic RSI oversold condition and ETF inflows could catalyze a rebound toward $3. However, a breakdown below $1.75 would likely force longs to capitulate, accelerating a drop toward $1.18 or even $0.88.

Investors must also monitor derivatives metrics closely. A recovery in open interest and positive funding rates could signal renewed speculative interest, while further declines would reinforce bearish momentum. The interplay between institutional inflows and retail bearishness will ultimately determine whether $2 is a final floor or a prelude to deeper losses.

Conclusion

The $2 level for XRP represents a critical inflection point. While technical patterns and on-chain metrics lean bearish, institutional inflows and whale activity introduce a counterweight that could stabilize the price. Investors should brace for volatility and closely watch the 100-week ($1.60) and 200-week ($1.05) moving averages as potential intermediate targets in a market defined by extremes. The coming weeks will test whether XRP's resilience can withstand the forces aligned against it.