2 Auto Retailers to Watch Despite Cooling Sales and Global Tensions

The Zacks Auto Retail and Wholesale industry faces a subdued outlook, shaped by affordability pressures, moderating sales, geopolitical risks and a challenging electric vehicle (EV) landscape. High vehicle prices, elevated interest rates, and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand, while sales are weakening after a strong prior year. Rising geopolitical tensions could further impact fuel costs and consumer sentiment. At the same time, slowing EV demand contrasts with steady hybrid growth. Despite the headwinds, stocks like Penske Automotive PAG and AutoNation AN are better positioned, thanks to their strategic buyouts, digitization efforts and investor friendly movies.

About the Industry

The auto retail and wholesale industry plays a key role in how cars, trucks and auto parts reach consumers. Companies in this space operate through dealership networks and retail chains, selling both new and used vehicles, offering repair and maintenance services, and helping customers with financing. Since this is a consumer-driven industry, its performance often depends on how strong the economy is. When people have more disposable income, they're more likely to spend on vehicles. But during tougher times, like economic slowdowns, big purchases are often put on hold. The COVID-19 pandemic changed the way the industry works, pushing dealers to focus more on online tools and e-commerce. That digital shift is expected to continue, shaping how vehicles are bought and sold in the future.

Factors Shaping the Industry's Fate

Affordability Concerns: Affordability remains a key headwind for the U.S. auto retail industry, as high vehicle prices and economic uncertainty weigh on consumer demand. The average transaction price of a new vehicle was around $49,353 in February, making it too expensive for many buyers. At the same time, tariff policies—such as a 25% levy on imported parts and 50% on steel and aluminum—are pushing production costs higher. These pressures are keeping vehicle prices elevated, making affordability the industry’s most persistent challenge.

Cooling Sales Momentum: The U.S. auto retail industry is expected to see sales ease after a strong period last year. March sales are projected to decline nearly 12% year over year, largely due to a high base, as pre-tariff buying in March 2025 had pushed annualized sales pace to a four-year high. Monthly sales are now forecast at 1.37 million units, reflecting a drop from that surge. More broadly, higher vehicle prices, persistent inflation, and elevated interest rates are weighing on demand, with full-year 2026 sales expected to decline a modest 2.6% year over year to 15.8 million units.

Geopolitical Uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions are also a cause of concern for the U.S. auto retail industry. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East and rising threats around critical oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted global energy supplies and pushed fuel prices higher. This can have ripple effects across the economy, raising overall living costs. As expenses rise, consumer sentiment toward big-ticket purchases like vehicles may further weaken. Prolonged conflict or further escalation could also hurt global economic stability, creating a challenging environment for auto sales.

Challenging EV Landscape: The EV market is facing a more challenging phase after a surge last year, owing to incentive-related buying. Demand has softened in early 2026, as the removal of federal tax incentives continues to weigh on consumer interest. EV sales are projected to decline sharply, down nearly 28% year over year in the first quarter. In contrast, hybrid vehicles are seeing steady growth, with strong momentum led by automakers like Toyota and Honda.

Zacks Industry Rank is Discouraging

The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale industry is part of the broader Zacks Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #213, which places it in the bottom 13% of nearly 245 Zacks industries.

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates weak near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate.Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are getting pessimistic about this group’s earnings growth potential. Over the past year, the industry's earnings estimate for 2026 has declined 8%.

We will present a couple of stocks that you might consider adding to your watchlist. But before that, let’s discuss the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Lags Sector and S&P 500

The Zacks Auto Retail & Whole Sales industry has remained flat, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite as well as the Auto, Tires and Truck sector over the past year, which grew 16.5% and 31.2%, respectively.

One-Year Price Performance

Industry's Current Valuation

Since automotive companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio.

On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, the industry is currently trading at 8.37X compared with the S&P 500’s 16.55X and the sector’s trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 27.48X.

Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 10.66X, as low as 4.78X and at a median of 7.21X, as the chart below shows.

EV/EBITDA Ratio (Past 5 Years)

2 Stocks to Keep An Eye On

Penske: It is one of the leading automotive and commercial truck retailers with a well-diversified and resilient business model. The company continues to expand through strategic acquisitions, including the recent purchase of Lexus dealerships in Central Florida, which is expected to add around $450 million in annual revenues. Its service and parts segment provides a stable, recurring income stream, supported by rising demand for complex repairs in advanced vehicles.

Penske also benefits from steady earnings from Penske Transportation Solutions, which is positioned for growth as freight demand improves. Backed by a strong balance sheet, consistent share buybacks, and 21 consecutive dividend hikes, PAG offers a compelling mix of growth and shareholder returns.

Penske currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 sales implies year-over-year growth of 5.5% and 2.5%, respectively. While the consensus mark for 2026 EPS calls for a 1% year-over-year decline, the same for 2027 points to a 7% uptick from projected 2026 levels.

Price & Consensus: PAG

AutoNation: It is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, supported by its broad geographic footprint and expanding dealership network. The company continues to grow through acquisitions. Last year, AN inked deals that are expected to contribute more than $650 million in annual revenues. Its Finance division is its key strength, showing improved profitability, higher in-store penetration, and solid credit performance, further boosted by the acquisition of CIG Financial.

AutoNation is also enhancing its digital presence through the AutoNation Express platform, improving the online buying experience. Strong shareholder returns remain a priority, with significant share repurchases and nearly $1 billion still available under its current buyback program.

AutoNation currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 sales implies year-over-year growth of 2% and 3%, respectively. The consensus mark for 2026 and 2027 EPS calls for a year-over-year uptick of 6% and 12%, respectively, from projected 2026 levels.

Price & Consensus: AN

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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