1INCHUSDT Market Overview

• Price action broke down below key support, forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Volatility increased mid-day, with volume surging during the 18:00–20:00 ET window.
• A 4-hour bullish reversal attempt failed, indicating bearish exhaustion is not confirmed.
• Price remains in a descending channel, with resistance forming near 0.2595 and support at 0.2540.

1inch/Tether (1INCHUSDT) opened at 0.2599 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 0.2649 and 0.2530 over the 24-hour period, closing at 0.2644 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 2,377,456.4, with a notional turnover of approximately $612,781. The price action showed strong bearish momentum during the early afternoon, followed by a moderate rebound in the evening.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed several key levels, including a bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.2583–0.2576 and a bullish harami at 0.2563–0.2566. Price found support at 0.2540 and 0.2550, but failed to hold above 0.2576 for extended periods. A descending channel became evident from midday, with a descending trendline capping the rally. A potential reversal setup emerged near 0.2565 but was quickly invalidated by bearish follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs showed a bearish crossover mid-day, confirming the breakdown. The 50-period SMA sat around 0.2568, with the price falling below this level in the afternoon and staying there for most of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period SMAs remained aligned in a downtrend, with the 50 SMA near 0.2550. Price currently trades above the 50 SMA but remains below the 100 and 200 SMA, suggesting mixed sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish in the early afternoon, with the histogram shrinking in the evening as price attempted a rally. However, the bearish crossover remained intact. RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 30) at 0.2543 but failed to trigger a sustained bounce. This divergence between RSI and price suggests the market may be consolidating ahead of a potential breakout, either up or down.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly between 18:00 and 20:00 ET, with the Bollinger Band width expanding. Price remained near the lower band for most of the day, indicating bearish dominance. A brief move to the upper band occurred during the late-night rally but was quickly reversed. The 20-period Bollinger Band midline sat around 0.2580–0.2590, with price showing no immediate signs of breaking through the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 18:15 ET, with over 339,423.3 units traded at 0.2562–0.2553, reflecting heavy bearish activity. A volume divergence was noted during the late-night rally, with volume shrinking despite price rising from 0.2543 to 0.2558. Turnover increased in line with volume, but the correlation weakened during the 03:00–06:00 ET period, indicating potential indecision among market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels for the 15-minute swing from 0.2530 to 0.2649 were at 0.2582 and 0.2554, respectively. Price found temporary support near the 61.8% level but failed to confirm the level as a strong base. The daily Fibonacci retracement from 0.2649 to 0.2530 showed 38.2% at 0.2586 and 61.8% at 0.2554, aligning with key support levels observed during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this pair might involve a mean-reversion approach using RSI and Bollinger Bands. The idea is to look for RSI entering oversold territory (below 30) while the price is near the lower Bollinger Band. A long entry would be triggered on a bullish close above the 20-period SMA, with a stop loss just below the most recent swing low. Given today’s action, this signal could have been generated at 0.2543 with a target near 0.2565. However, the volume divergence suggests the signal is weaker than ideal, and confirmation is required before acting.