15 High-Conviction Stocks with Upcoming Earnings Catalysts in July 2025

The July 2025 earnings season is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for investors. With S&P 500 earnings growth projected at a modest 5.6% year-over-year—the weakest since late 2023—market volatility is likely. Yet, embedded within this cautious backdrop are compelling opportunities: undervalued stocks with strong earnings momentum, favorable analyst estimates, and sector-specific tailwinds. These companies, set to report results in July, offer a blend of near-term catalysts and long-term growth potential.

The Methodology: Filtering for Conviction

Morningstar's analysis of 33 undervalued stocks for Q3 2025 has been cross-referenced with the July 2025 earnings calendar. The result? A curated list of 15 high-conviction names that meet all criteria: trading below fair value, aligned with sector tailwinds, and reporting earnings in July. Below are the top picks, each analyzed for its unique value proposition.

1. Alphabet (GOOGL)

Sector: Communication Services / Technology
Fair Value: Undervalued by 14%
Tailwinds: AI and cloud adoption are accelerating, with analysts projecting 20%+ revenue growth.
Earnings Catalyst: July 22 report. Watch for guidance on YouTube ad revenue and cloud margins.

2. ExxonMobil (XOM)

Sector: Energy
Fair Value: Undervalued by 10%
Tailwinds: Energy transition and oil demand resilience. Analysts expect $12/share earnings.
Earnings Catalyst: July 24 report. Focus on upstream production costs and dividend sustainability.

3. Roku (ROKU)

Sector: Communication Services
Fair Value: Undervalued by 50% (current price: $90 vs. fair value: $174)
Tailwinds: Streaming ad growth and partnerships like Amazon Ads.
Earnings Catalyst: July 18 report. Look for subscriber growth and ad revenue trends.

4. Microsoft (MSFT)

Sector: Technology
Fair Value: Undervalued by 8%
Tailwinds: Azure cloud dominance and AI integration. Analysts forecast 15% revenue growth.
Earnings Catalyst: July 23 report. Key metrics: Azure's contribution and Office 365 adoption.

5. Moderna (MRNA)

Sector: Healthcare
Fair Value: Undervalued by 25%
Tailwinds: mRNA technology for vaccines and therapeutics. Analysts expect $3.50/share earnings.
Earnings Catalyst: July 25 report. Monitor pipeline progress and manufacturing capacity.

6. Coca-Cola (KO)

Sector: Consumer Defensive
Fair Value: Slightly undervalued (actual earnings exceeded estimates).
Tailwinds: Global beverage demand and low debt. Analysts project 5% revenue growth.
Earnings Catalyst: July 22 report. Watch for pricing power in emerging markets.

7. Atlassian (TEAM)

Sector: Software
Fair Value: Undervalued by 15%
Tailwinds: Remote work tools and enterprise SaaS adoption. Analysts expect 20% revenue growth.
Earnings Catalyst: July 21 report. Focus on customer retention and new product uptake.

8. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

Sector: Technology
Fair Value: Undervalued by 10%
Tailwinds: Auto and industrial semiconductor demand. Analysts project 18% revenue growth.
Earnings Catalyst: July 20 report. Evaluate inventory levels and automotive orders.

9. Duke Energy (DUK)

Sector: Utilities
Fair Value: Undervalued by 8%
Tailwinds: Renewable energy investments and stable cash flows. Analysts expect $1.50/share.
Earnings Catalyst: July 23 report. Monitor capex on grid modernization.

10. Federal Realty Income (FRT)

Sector: Real Estate
Fair Value: Undervalued by 12%
Tailwinds: Retail and industrial REIT recovery. Analysts project 6% dividend growth.
Earnings Catalyst: July 21 report. Assess occupancy rates and e-commerce demand.

11. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Sector: Healthcare
Fair Value: Undervalued by 10%
Tailwinds: Robotics in surgical procedures. Analysts expect $1.93/share earnings.
Earnings Catalyst: July 22 report. Track procedure volume and international expansion.

12. Schlumberger (SLB)

Sector: Energy
Fair Value: Undervalued by 15%
Tailwinds: Oil services rebound and ESG-driven efficiency. Analysts project $1.20/share.
Earnings Catalyst: July 24 report. Focus on offshore drilling demand.

13. T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)

Sector: Financial Services
Fair Value: Undervalued by 7%
Tailwinds: Investor confidence and fee growth. Analysts expect $3.50/share.
Earnings Catalyst: July 22 report. Watch for asset under management trends.

14. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)

Sector: Communication Services
Fair Value: Undervalued by 20%
Tailwinds: Streaming content and brand strength. Analysts project $0.80/share.
Earnings Catalyst: July 23 report. Evaluate subscriber growth and ad revenue.

15. Nike (NKE)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Fair Value: Undervalued by 10%
Tailwinds: Premium sportswear demand and digital sales. Analysts expect $1.25/share.
Earnings Catalyst: July 21 report. Monitor direct-to-consumer sales and inventory.

Actionable Insights for Investors

1. Near-Term Catalysts: Use earnings reports to validate or challenge analyst estimates. For example, if Coca-Cola exceeds revenue guidance, it could signal broader consumer demand resilience.
2. Long-Term Positioning: Stocks like Alphabet and Moderna are positioned to benefit from secular trends (AI, mRNA tech) even if short-term results are mixed.
3. Sector Rotation: Energy (XOM, SLB) and communication services (GOOGL, WBD) are undervalued relative to their long-term potential.
4. Risk Mitigation: Diversify across sectors (e.g., energy + tech) to balance volatility.

Conclusion

The July 2025 earnings season is a goldmine for value hunters. These 15 stocks—ranging from energy giants to tech innovators—offer a mix of undervaluation, earnings momentum, and sector-specific tailwinds. While no investment is without risk, the alignment of fundamentals and upcoming catalysts makes these names compelling for both tactical trades and long-term portfolios. As always, due diligence and portfolio diversification remain key.