$14.21 Billion Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expire Today

Today marks a significant event in the cryptocurrency market as approximately $14.21 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire. This event is closely watched by market participants due to its potential impact on short-term price trends, influenced by the volume of contracts and their notional value.

The notional value of the expiring Bitcoin options stands at $12.075 billion, comprising 139,260 contracts. According to data from a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, these options have a put-to-call ratio of 0.49, indicating a higher prevalence of call options over put options. The maximum pain point for these expiring options is $85,000, which is the price at which the greatest number of option holders would incur financial losses.

In addition to Bitcoin, 1,068,519 Ethereum options contracts are due to expire today. These options have a notional value of $2.135 billion, a put-to-call ratio of 0.39, and a maximum pain point of $2,400. This week's expiring options are notably higher than last week's, which saw 21,596 BTC and 133,447 ETH options expire with notional values of $1.826 billion and $264.46 million, respectively. This difference is attributed to the fact that this week's expiring options are for the month and the quarter, with this being the last Friday of March.

Deribit, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, has adopted the convention of setting options expiry on Fridays to align with traditional financial market practices. This schedule provides a consistent timing for traders and facilitates settlement processes. The exchange noted that today's expiry concludes the first quarter in options expirations, with over $14 billion in BTC and ETH options set to expire at 08:00 UTC.

Analysts observe that Bitcoin's implied volatility curve indicates a strong bias toward higher prices, with calls priced much higher than puts. In contrast, Ethereum's flatter volatility curve suggests less directional bias but still reflects elevated volatility. This hints at anticipated price movement around the expiry date of the $14.21 billion options. According to the analysts, most traders anticipate a retest of lower price levels around $84,000–$85,000 for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $85,960. However, some traders note that Bitcoin is stuck in a tight, range-bound trading pattern, implying limited volatility unless a breakout occurs.

Key resistance levels being watched are 88,400, where significant passive selling was observed, and potential support at 77,000, which one trader called the definite bottom. Implied Volatility is under pressure due to the quarterly delivery, noting significant deviations in the IV Mark. This suggests opportunities for traders to exploit these fluctuations through manual or automated strategies.