Is $130 the Final Support for Solana (SOL)?

Solana (SOL) has long been a focal point for both retail and institutional investors, but its recent price action near the $130 level has intensified scrutiny. As the cryptocurrency battles to hold this critical support zone in November 2025, the question looms: Is $130 the final line of defense for Solana, or does it signal the beginning of a deeper bearish phase? To answer this, we must dissect technical and on-chain data, weighing bullish resilience against looming bearish risks.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Balance

The $130 level has historically acted as a robust support for Solana, with repeated bounces during November's volatility. However, the broader technical picture remains mixed. The death cross-a bearish signal where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average-has amplified concerns about extended downward momentum. Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33 suggests mild bullish divergence, as buyers have aggressively defended the $121–$123 support zone.

Price is consolidating within a descending channel, and a breakout above $135–$140 is necessary to rekindle bullish momentum. Analysts note that a clean bounce from $130 aligns with a horizontal support zone and a long-term rising trendline on weekly charts, hinting at a potential turning point. If sustained above this level, the upside target of $250 could be reactivated. Conversely, a breakdown would open the door to lower Fibonacci retracement levels at $75 and $50 as seen in previous patterns.

On-Chain Indicators: Capitulation and Accumulation

On-chain metrics paint a nuanced picture. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows Solana in a capitulation zone, with most holders underwater-a pattern historically preceding long-term price bottoms, as seen in 2022. Meanwhile, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 1.24–1.45 significantly below historical tops), suggesting the asset is undervalued and potentially primed for accumulation.

However, bearish risks persist. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates only mild accumulation, lacking the institutional-grade inflows needed to confirm a reversal. The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator continues to print red bars, underscoring seller dominance as per recent analysis. These metrics highlight a fragile equilibrium: while retail capitulation may attract bargain hunters, institutional buyers have yet to fully commit.

Institutional Activity: A Double-Edged Sword

Institutional interest in Solana has surged, particularly through newly launched spot ETFs. These products have attracted $613 million in cumulative net inflows since October 2025, with Bitwise's Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) capturing 89% of the total according to market data. The 7% staking yields offered by these ETFs outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum, incentivizing long-term holding. Whale activity further reinforces this trend: a major whale staked $7 million in SOL in November, adding to a $109 million staking streak since August.

Yet, institutional participation is not without risks. While ETF inflows and whale accumulation signal confidence, the broader altcoin market remains subdued relative to Bitcoin. A coordinated recovery among major altcoins could signal a new bull phase, but Solana's current underperformance suggests it is still in a transitional phase.

Bearish Reversal Risks: The Path of Least Resistance

Despite bullish catalysts, bearish risks remain acute. The death cross and BBP's red bars indicate that sellers retain control as per technical analysis. A failure to hold $130 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, pushing Solana toward $75 or $50. Additionally, the CMF's lack of institutional-grade inflows raises questions about the depth of buyer participation as per recent reports.

Historical patterns also caution against complacency. While NUPL capitulation often precedes bottoms, it can also mark the start of a prolonged bear market if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. For now, the market is betting on Solana's resilience, but the $130 level must hold to validate this optimism.

Conclusion: A Crucial Crossroads

Solana stands at a pivotal junction. The $130 support level represents both a psychological and technical fulcrum, with institutional accumulation and on-chain capitulation suggesting a potential bottom. However, the absence of strong institutional inflows and the dominance of bearish indicators like the death cross and BBP mean the outcome is far from certain.

If $130 holds, Solana could rekindle its bullish trajectory toward $250. A breakdown, however, would likely usher in a deeper correction. Investors must monitor key on-chain metrics and institutional activity closely, as the next few weeks could determine whether $130 is the final support or the beginning of the end.