Is $130–$140 the New Support Floor for Solana (SOL) Amid Liquidity Reset and Whale Accumulation?

The Solana (SOL) price action in late 2025 has drawn intense scrutiny as the asset consolidates within the $130–$140 range, a critical juncture where liquidity-driven market structure and institutional signals are reshaping its trajectory. With on-chain metrics pointing to a liquidity reset and whale activity intensifying, the question of whether this range has become a structural support floor is gaining urgency for investors.

Liquidity Reset and On-Chain Dynamics

A liquidity reset is underway in the Solana ecosystem, marked by a 30-day realized profit-to-loss ratio falling below 1 since mid-November. This metric, which indicates that realized losses now outweigh profits, is a hallmark of late-stage bear markets and has historically preceded major rallies in 2023 and 2024. According to a report by Altcoin Vector, this reset signals the start of a new liquidity cycle, with a potential "ignition phase" expected as early as January 2026 according to market analysis.

On-chain data further reinforces this narrative. Tokens are increasingly moving from exchange wallets to self-custody addresses, a pattern observed during prior bullish cycles according to on-chain data. This shift suggests accumulation by long-term holders, reducing exchange supply and potentially setting the stage for a price rebound. However, the $130 support level remains fragile: a break below this threshold could expose a $95–$100 liquidity gap and trigger $500 million in long-position liquidations as reported by CoinMarketCap.

Whale Accumulation and Institutional Signals

Whale activity has emerged as a key driver of Solana's liquidity dynamics. A major whale recently transferred 101,365 SOL ($13.89 million) from Kraken to a private wallet, signaling confidence in the asset's recovery potential according to crypto analysis. This move occurred as the price dipped to $129, absorbing downward pressure and stabilizing the market. Similarly, a 100,000 SOL transfer to Binance reinforced resistance near $140, highlighting strategic liquidity management by large players according to TradingView data.

Institutional signals are mixed but trending bullish. While Solana ETFs like the 21Shares TSOL ETF recorded $42 million in redemptions, a five-day net inflow of $16.54 million into spot ETFs suggests renewed institutional interest as reported by Yahoo Finance. Derivatives markets also reflect optimism, with rising open interest and long-position dominance indicating a bullish bias according to Trading News. However, retail traders remain bearish, as evidenced by a negative Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) and smaller order sizes, which signal waning confidence according to CryptoRank.

Market Structure and Technical Indicators

The $130–$140 range has become a battleground for market structure. Solana's ability to hold the $130 support level-after a prolonged downtrend-has created a "cleaner bounce," reinforcing short-term bullish momentum according to technical analysis. Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are approaching neutral-to-bullish territory, suggesting potential for a breakout above $145–$148 resistance according to market forecasts. A sustained close above $140 could unlock targets near $150 and eventually retest $210, aligning with broader bullish projections as analysts report.

However, structural challenges persist. Validator attrition and governance inefficiencies have weakened Solana's decentralization, raising concerns about long-term sustainability according to market analysis. These factors, combined with macroeconomic uncertainty around the Fed's rate-cut trajectory, could delay a full recovery.

Macro Catalysts and Forward Outlook

The Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts will serve as a critical catalyst. A 50-basis-point cut could provide the spark needed to reestablish bullish momentum, particularly if Solana maintains control over its $130–$140 band according to market forecasts. Meanwhile, the liquidity reset and whale accumulation suggest that the $130–$140 range is structurally significant, acting as both a psychological floor and a technical pivot point.

Conclusion

While Solana faces near-term risks-including retail selling pressure and validator challenges-the confluence of a liquidity reset, whale accumulation, and institutional inflows points to a potential support floor forming in the $130–$140 range. Investors should monitor key levels: a break below $130 could trigger a bearish cascade, while a sustained close above $140 may signal the start of a new bullish phase. For now, the market remains in a delicate balancing act, with the outcome hinging on macroeconomic clarity and continued institutional participation.