Is $115K the Next Major Bitcoin Price Target? Analyzing the Technical and On-Chain Signals

Bitcoin's recent price action has ignited a critical debate: Is $115,000 the next major price target? After a 20% correction from its all-time high of $126,000, the cryptocurrency has tested the $98.2k–$100k support zone, sparking renewed interest in its long-term bullish potential. This article dissects the technical and on-chain signals to determine whether $115K is a plausible near-term target, focusing on market timing and momentum validation.

The Technical Case: A Post-Correction Rebound

Bitcoin's price has retested a key trendline that historically acted as resistance but now functions as support in 2025, according to a CoinEdition analysis. This level, combined with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), has historically underpinned major uptrends. Notably, Bitcoin closed above the 50-day EMA in late 2024 and again in April 2025, each time triggering new bullish phases, as reported in a TradingView report. The current price action suggests a similar pattern may be unfolding.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is another critical indicator. It is currently resetting near its historical reversal zone-a level that has signaled the start of rallies in early 2023, late 2024, and Q2 2025, according to the TradingView report. This suggests the correction may be nearing completion, with momentum shifting back to the bulls. If Bitcoin breaks above the $110K resistance, it could target $115K as a psychological and technical milestone.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation and Deleveraging

On-chain data provides further validation. Record-high accumulation addresses indicate that long-term holders are buying the dip, a sign of institutional and retail confidence, as noted in the CoinEdition analysis. CryptoQuant's analysis notes that the monthly average of accumulation addresses nearly doubled in less than two months, signaling a "local bottom," according to the CoinEdition analysis. This aligns with the recent deleveraging of leveraged traders, which has spurred spot demand and reduced short-term selling pressure.

Moreover, ETF inflows and macroeconomic sentiment remain supportive. The Federal Reserve's two rate cuts in 2025 have injected liquidity into risk assets, with Bitcoin benefiting from its status as a hedge against inflation and monetary expansion, according to the CoinEdition analysis. While ETF data shows slower capital inflows compared to previous cycles, the on-chain accumulation suggests a shift toward patient, long-term positioning.

Resistance Levels and Fibonacci Context

Post the $100K support test, Bitcoin faces critical resistance at $105K–$110K and $118K–$125K, as noted in an EBusiness analysis. A weekly close above $110K would significantly improve the odds of a sustained rebound. While Fibonacci retracement levels for $115K were not explicitly confirmed in recent analyses, the psychological and technical significance of this level cannot be ignored. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to retest and surpass key psychological thresholds after consolidating post-correction.

Market Timing and Macro Considerations

The timing of Bitcoin's next move hinges on macroeconomic catalysts. The Fed's anticipated Quantitative Easing (QE) program remains a tailwind, as increased liquidity typically favors assets with low correlation to traditional markets, according to the CoinEdition analysis. However, a deeper correction toward $80K–$90K remains a risk if ETF inflows stall or global macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

For now, the balance of evidence tilts toward a bullish scenario. The combination of on-chain accumulation, technical indicators, and macroeconomic support suggests that $115K is a viable near-term target-particularly if Bitcoin sustains its position above the $100K–$95K support zone.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's journey to $115K will depend on its ability to hold key support levels and capitalize on the momentum generated by on-chain accumulation and macroeconomic tailwinds. While Fibonacci retracement levels for $115K lack direct confirmation, the broader technical and on-chain narrative supports a bullish case. Investors should monitor the $110K threshold closely, as a breakout here could validate the $115K target and set the stage for a new all-time high in early 2026.