10x Genomics’ Earnings Call Flags Atera Revenue Discrepancies, Academic Spending Contradictions, and Manufacturing Scaling Uncertainty

Date of Call: Aug 6, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $151 million, up 3% YOY excluding $1.6M non-recurring settlement revenue
• Gross Margin: 74% (up from 72% YOY), or 74% vs 67% YOY excluding non-recurring revenue

Guidance:

• Raising full-year 2026 revenue outlook to $610M-$630M (2%-5% growth YOY excluding non-recurring revenue).
• Expects modest sequential revenue step down in Q3 from Q2, then significant step up in Q4 as Atera shipments ramp.
• Full-year Atera instrument shipment target remains ~40 units, with most in Q4.
• Prior year period had ~$4M of temporary pull-forward in APAC; this year APAC revenue down 19% YOY.

Business Commentary:

Revenue and Atera Launch Impact:

• 10x Genomics reported revenue of $151 million for Q2 2026, with $1.6 million from a settlement with Takara. Excluding non-recurring settlement revenue, Q2 revenue was $149 million, showing a 3% year-over-year increase.
• The strong performance was driven by the extraordinary customer response to the Atera launch, resulting in a large number of orders, and sustained strength in on-market products like Chromium consumables and Xenium.

Single-Cell and Spatial Business Trends:

• Total consumables revenue increased by 7%, with single-cell consumables up 3% and spatial consumables up 16%.
• Growth in single-cell was supported by double-digit growth in reaction volumes due to Flex Apex adoption, while spatial growth was driven by Xenium utilization and sequential growth in Visium.

Instrument Revenue and Transition Dynamics:

• Total instrument revenue declined by 47%, with Chromium instruments down 46% and Spatial instruments down 48%.
• The decline was primarily due to a lower number of units sold as customers moderated purchases of existing spatial products in anticipation of Atera.

Geographic Revenue Distribution:

• Excluding non-recurring revenue, America's revenue grew by 6%, EMEA grew by 15%, and APAC declined by 19%.
• The decline in APAC was due to temporary pull-forward purchasing activity in China in the prior year period.

Gross Margin and Operating Expenses:

• Gross margin increased to 74% from 72% the prior year, driven by lower manufacturing costs and tariff refunds.
• Operating expenses were approximately flat year-over-year at $132.1 million when excluding gains from patent litigation settlements.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management described 'extraordinary customer response' and 'remarkable' Atera order momentum. They stated 'the early signs suggest it is on that trajectory' to transform biology. 'We believe AI represents a significant and structural tailwind for our business' and 'the upcoming years are going to be profoundly exciting and we're uniquely well-positioned.'

Q&A:

• Question from Kyle Nixon (Canaccord): Why remain conservative on Atera shipments in second half? Is it manufacturing constraints? And what sets 10X apart in AI, any tangible revenue?
  Response: Shipment constraint is manufacturing capacity, not demand. Regarding AI, it's a pervasive structural tailwind across all customer segments, but revenue recognition is mixed and early; more granular color to come.

• Question from Luke Sagat (Barclays): What changed in Q3 guide (step down from flat)? And what drives Q4 growth besides Atera?
  Response: Q3 dynamics unchanged from Q1 call; transition peak in spatial moderates revenue. Q4 step up is mostly Atera instrument shipments, with some normal seasonal strength.

• Question from Tycho Peterson (Jefferies): What's manufacturing capacity for Atera next year? How quickly can early adopters ramp utilization?
  Response: Capacity will scale up to meet demand; team is building infrastructure. Utilization potential is 1.5M-3M samples per instrument annually, but it's too early for precise estimates.

• Question from Dan Arias (Stifel): How does Atera's sensitivity compare to Xenium, and how does that influence sales messaging?
  Response: Atera's sensitivity is substantially higher than Xenium for whole transcriptome assays. Early data and customer feedback are overwhelmingly positive.

• Question from Thomas (Guggenheim Securities): What feedback from early adopters? How ensure smooth transition for customers?
  Response: Demand is very strong with minimal product performance concerns. Roadmap includes software, content, automation, and proteomics to enhance platform over time.

• Question from Michael Riskin (Bank of America): Why is Chromium consumables growth flat? What tangible metrics for AI-driven demand?
  Response: Single-cell growth is transitioning to Flex Apex, which supports larger, distributed studies. AI is a major structural tailwind but revenue impact is mixed; early stages with massive future opportunity.

• Question from Matt LaRue (William Blake): How does the product suite and software influence multi-year project decisions?
  Response: Platform merits are strong standalone, but integrated multiomics, scalability, and software for large datasets provide compelling solutions for AI model training.

• Question from Jayden (JP Morgan): What's academic end market spending outlook? Upside potential?
  Response: Academic environment remains tenuous; grant funding isn't translating to purchases due to multi-year allocations and staffing issues. Guidance assumes status quo, not improvement.

• Question from Sky (Piper Sandler): What is Atera commercial landscape? Incentives to shift from Xenium?
  Response: Dedicated sales team for Atera, but all products sold broadly. No special incentives; focus is on meeting customer application needs.

• Question from Puneet Soda (LeeRank): Any discounts for Xenium to accelerate Atera adoption? What's funding line of sight for large biology AI projects?
  Response: No specific incentives for Atera yet; demand is broad. AI funding is emerging at high levels, with priorities aligning with single-cell and spatial needs, expected to drive future revenue.

• Question from Dan Brennan (Teague Howen): How does Atera expand the spatial market vs. Xenium?
  Response: Atera is seeing broad customer and application diversity, indicating market expansion. Xenium will continue strong growth, but Atera is expected to take increasing share over time.

• Question from Justin Bowers (Deutsche Bank): How is Atera market segmented vs. Xenium? How expands total addressable market?
  Response: Atera attracting diverse customers and applications, driving material market expansion. Xenium remains best platform currently, but Atera is future-focused.

• Question from Jason (Morgan Stanley): How think about Atera consumables revenue for 2026 vs. Xenium pull-through?
  Response: Atera consumables pull-through is 2x Xenium max. Consumables orders are being taken but not quantified; Q3 to Q4 step up driven mostly by instrument shipments, with some consumables and normal seasonality.

Contradiction Point 1

Atera's Revenue Contribution and Growth Drivers

Contradiction on whether Atera's Q4 growth is primarily from instruments or includes significant consumables.

Luke Sagat (Barclays) - Luke Sagat (Barclays)

2026Q2: For Q4, the majority of the sequential step-up from Q3 is driven by Atera instrument shipments, with the remainder coming from normal seasonal strength across the portfolio. - Adam Tate(CFO)

What factors led to the Q3 revenue guide reduction from Q2, and what are the Q4 growth drivers outside of Atera instrumentation, such as Apex Flex or single-cell chromium? - Jason (Morgan Stanley)

2026Q2: Max theoretical pull-through for Atera is 2x that of Xenium. ... The Q3-to-Q4 revenue step-up is predominantly driven by Atera instrument shipments, with consumables and normal year-end dynamics contributing the remainder. - Adam Tate(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Academic Market Spending Environment

Contradiction on whether academic purchasing is constrained or if grants are flowing through.

Jayden (JP Morgan) - Jayden (JP Morgan)

2026Q2: The academic environment remains tenuous. While sentiment has improved slightly, purchasing is still constrained by multi-year funding allocations, slow grant review processes, and staffing shortages. - Serge Saxinov(CEO)

What are the current academic end-market trends, and are grant approvals translating into purchasing activity with expected improvement in the second half? - Jayden (JP Morgan)

2026Q2: The guidance assumes the macro environment stays the same, with no expected improvement in spending from grants in H2 2026. - Adam Tate(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Atera Manufacturing Capacity and Scaling Timeline

Contradiction on the predictability and current state of Atera production capacity scaling.

Tycho Peterson (Jefferies) - Tycho Peterson (Jefferies)

2026Q2: The team is scaling up capacity using investments... While it's too early to predict precise utilization rates, max utilization per Atera instrument is 1.5-3 million reactions annually... - Serge Saxinov(CEO)

What is the manufacturing capacity outlook for Atera next year and beyond, and how quickly can production scale up to meet demand from early adopters? - Avantika (Bank of America)

2026Q1: The company is being measured and deliberate in its production and testing process. It is confident in the production ramp for 2026 and will continue to ramp production into the next year. - Serge Saxinov(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Characterization of Academic End-Market Spending Environment

Contradiction on the stability and near-term outlook for academic grant funding and purchasing power.

Jayden (JP Morgan) - Jayden (JP Morgan)

2026Q2: The academic environment remains tenuous. While sentiment has improved slightly, purchasing is still constrained by multi-year funding allocations, slow grant review processes, and staffing shortages. - Serge Saxinov(CEO)

How are academic end-market trends progressing, particularly regarding grant approvals converting to purchases and expected improvement in the second half? - Kyle Nixon (Canaccord)

2026Q1: The macro CapEx environment remains constrained, but customer enthusiasm for Atera is so high that they are finding budgetary flexibility. - Adam Taich(CFO)