10X's BNC Stake: Flow of Disclosure and Price Impact

YZi Labs alleges that 10X Capital's warrant exercises pushed its total BNC ownership above the 5% SEC reporting threshold by late 2025. The company's own filings, according to YZi, leave little room for ambiguity on this math. More than a week has passed since the initial public call for disclosure, yet 10X and its controlling board member, Hans Thomas, have offered nothing but silence.

The scale of the potential undisclosed position is significant. With BNC's market cap at $220.76 million, a 5% stake represents over $11 million in equity flow that may have entered the company's capital structure without the required public notice. This creates a material information gap for other shareholders.

The alleged delay is now more serious due to recent SEC rule changes. The agency recently shortened the deadline for initial Schedule 13D filings from 10 days to five business days. In this new, faster regulatory environment, the continued silence from 10X Capital after being called out appears to heighten the violation, making the lack of transparency a more pressing concern.

Price Action and Liquidity Flow

The stock's dramatic decline is the clearest signal of the market's reaction. BNC is down 22.27% year-to-date and trades near its 52-week low of $4.55. This represents a 1561% drop from its 52-week high of $82.88, indicating a massive, sustained outflow of capital from the position. The sheer scale of the potential undisclosed stake-over $11 million-creates a fundamental overhang on the stock's valuation.

Trading activity has spiked on the disclosure news, confirming the market's focus. On the day the dispute became public, volume surged to 590.10K shares, more than doubling the stock's average daily volume of 341.83K shares. This liquidity flow is a direct response to the information gap, as investors seek to exit or hedge their positions amid heightened uncertainty and regulatory risk.

The setup now is one of extreme price pressure and thinning liquidity. With the stock at multi-year lows and the potential for a significant, undisclosed shareholder to be a source of future selling pressure, the path for a near-term recovery appears blocked. The market is pricing in the cost of this lack of transparency.

Catalysts and Risks for the Thesis

The immediate catalyst is regulatory enforcement. The SEC's accelerated filing deadlines mean 10X Capital's silence after a week is now a clear violation. The next step is whether the agency or BNC's board forces a Schedule 13D filing. A filing would confirm the undisclosed stake, quantify the position, and likely trigger a formal investigation into the delay. This would resolve the information gap but could also lead to penalties and further governance scrutiny.

A major risk is hidden selling pressure. The disclosure debate focuses on ownership, but the real bearish signal would be if 10X is actively selling. The stock's average volume of 341.83K shares is low, but a sustained spike above that level would indicate ongoing institutional flow. That flow could be driven by profit-taking from the undisclosed position, creating a new source of liquidity outflow not captured by the initial volume surge on the news.

The setup is one of high uncertainty and thin liquidity. Without a Schedule 13D, the market lacks a definitive accounting of the stake. Without evidence of selling, the fear of hidden supply remains. The path forward hinges on two flows: the regulatory flow of a mandatory filing, and the market flow of volume changes that would reveal whether the position is being unwound.