The 100–1,000 BTC Wallet Accumulation Slowdown and Its Implications for Bitcoin's Bear Market Outlook

Bitcoin's market dynamics in late 2025 have been shaped by a complex interplay of institutional behavior, macroeconomic uncertainty, and on-chain activity. A critical development is the observed slowdown in accumulation by wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC-a cohort often viewed as a barometer of institutional and mid-tier investor sentiment. This trend, combined with divergent institutional actions, raises questions about the trajectory of Bitcoin's bear market and the resilience of its long-term value proposition.

Accumulation Trends: A Shift in Institutional Conviction

Data from late November 2025 reveals a notable deceleration in the accumulation rate of 100–1,000 BTC wallets, a reversal from earlier 2025 trends where this cohort drove significant buying pressure. By November 26, 2025, the number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC had risen to 1,436, signaling sustained interest from large investors despite broader market weakness. However, the accumulation trend among mid-tier wallets (100–1,000 BTC) has weakened, with on-chain metrics indicating a pause in buying activity. This divergence suggests that while large institutions remain cautiously optimistic, mid-tier investors are recalibrating their strategies amid heightened volatility.

The slowdown coincides with a broader bear market, defined by a 27% decline from Bitcoin's peak near $126,000 to $92,000 by late October 2025. Historically, such corrections have been accompanied by increased accumulation from institutional players, but 2025's landscape is marked by structural shifts. For instance, entities holding 100–1,000 BTC previously accounted for 27.9735% of total supply by December 2025 according to data, but this share has since stabilized at 23.07% in Q4 2025 as reported, reflecting a plateau in buying momentum.

Institutional Behavior: Contradictory Signals in a Volatile Market

Institutional Bitcoin activity in 2025 has been characterized by mixed signals. While mid-tier holders (100–1,000 BTC) continue to absorb supply, larger whales (10,000+ BTC) and speculative entities have acted as net sellers. This dichotomy underscores a fragmented market sentiment: long-term investors are accumulating during dips, while short-term holders and leveraged firms are offloading assets.

A key driver of this divergence is the performance of Bitcoin ETFs. Q3 2025 saw $7.8 billion in net inflows, with October alone recording $3.2 billion. However, November marked a sharp reversal, as ETFs experienced $3.79 billion in outflows, driven by price volatility and macroeconomic concerns according to analysis. This shift highlights the sensitivity of institutional allocations to broader market conditions, particularly as U.S.-China trade tensions and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts create uncertainty according to analysis.

Meanwhile, forced selling from overleveraged DATCos has exacerbated downward pressure. These firms, which injected $42.7 billion into crypto in 2025, are now liquidating assets to meet debt obligations, contributing to Bitcoin's sharp price declines. This dynamic contrasts with the strategic accumulation observed in Q3, where institutions used market corrections as entry points.

Bear Market Implications: A Test of Resilience

Bitcoin's bear market in 2025 mirrors patterns from 2022, with a 98% correlation in monthly performance. However, the current environment is distinct in its institutionalization. Unlike retail-driven panics in past downturns, 2025's sell-off has been tempered by institutional buying during volatility, particularly in October as reported. This behavior suggests that large players are stabilizing prices, though the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain.

The October 10 crash, which saw Bitcoin dip below $85,000, exemplifies this tension. While ETF inflows rebounded by November 30, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logging $71 million in inflows, the broader market remains fragile. Technical indicators point to critical support levels near $83,500, with long-term holders and institutions continuing to accumulate. Yet, the lack of broad-based adoption and persistent speculative positioning in futures markets remain challenges as noted.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in a Polarized Market

The slowdown in 100–1,000 BTC wallet accumulation reflects a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's 2025 narrative. While mid-tier investors and institutions are showing resilience, the broader bear market is being fueled by macroeconomic headwinds and forced selling from leveraged entities. The coming months will hinge on key variables: the outcome of the December Federal Reserve meeting, the stability of ETF inflows, and whether the accumulation by long-term holders can catalyze a recovery.

For investors, the data underscores the importance of distinguishing between short-term volatility and long-term structural demand. As one analyst noted, "Bitcoin's history suggests that periods of capitulation often precede significant recoveries-but the path to $120,000 will require both macroeconomic clarity and sustained institutional conviction" according to analysis.