The $1 Trillion Question: When Everyone's Betting on AI, Who's Left Holding the Bag?

The artificial intelligence boom has been sweeping through global capital markets. However, nobody knows if this new technology wave will create a new generation of tech giants or simply breed another speculative bubble.

According to the latest research from the Financial Times, the combined valuation of ten unprofitable AI startups globally has surged by nearly $1 trillion over the past 12 months, marking the fastest wealth expansion in history.

These ten companies-OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Perplexity, Scale AI, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Figure AI, Anysphere, and Databricks—have collectively attracted over $200 billion in venture capital funding this year alone, accounting for two-thirds of total VC investment in the United States.

Yet, nearly all of them are still operating at a loss.

The venture capital world in 2025 is thoroughly captivated by AI.

PitchBook data shows that U.S. VC investments in AI this year will exceed $200 billion, far surpassing the $135 billion peak during the 2021 "Software-as-a-Service" bubble. In comparison, at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000, funding directed toward internet companies was just $10.5 billion (approximately $20 billion adjusted for inflation).

In Silicon Valley, an AI company with just $5 million in annual revenue can now command a valuation of $500 million-100 times its revenue.

A partner at a top-tier venture firm admitted: "Even during the zero-interest-rate era, such companies were valued at only $250–300 million. Today's market feels like everyone is betting they've found the next OpenAI."

Behind this "lottery-ticket" investment logic lies a collective Fear Of Missing Out. "AI is a technology that can 'add a zero' to everything," said Sameer Dholakia, an investor at Bessemer Venture Partners.

Lucas Swisher, a partner at Coatue Management, believes the AI landscape may follow a pattern similar to the internet era-where only a handful of companies ultimately prevail.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff was more direct; he suggests perhaps $1 trillion in AI investment will be wasted, but AI will ultimately create ten times that value in return. The way tech innovation works has always been throw money at the wall and see what sticks.

Today, valuation swings in private AI companies are beginning to impact public markets.

In recent weeks, giants like AMD, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Oracle have seen their market values surge by hundreds of billions of dollars due to partnerships with OpenAI. Should these AI startups face funding crunches, the ripple effects could drag down the entire tech sector.

Although OpenAI's annualized revenue has reached $13 billion, its fierce competition with Microsoft and Google keeps it deeply entrenched in a cash-burning war. The cost of training the next-generation models is rising exponentially, while the path to profitability remains unclear.

Investors are betting not only on the computational power of models but also on Sam Altman's ability to replicate human intelligence.

AI may indeed unlock trillion-dollar new markets, but the current capital frenzy carries a familiar scent—valuations severely detached from profits, stories preceding facts.

Is this the prelude to an "AI golden age," or merely the rerun of another "bubble tale"?

When everyone believes the future belongs only to a few dominant "AI black hole companies," the bubble is often not far from bursting.