The backtest shows that AXP tends to perform positively following an earnings beat, with a 3-day and 10-day win rate of 61.54% and a 30-day win rate rising to 69.23%. Returns progressively improve over time, reaching an average of 3.49% at 30 days. This suggests a reliable upward momentum triggered by positive earnings surprises.

The steady increase in win rates and returns indicates growing investor confidence post-earnings beat. The maximum return of 3.24% reached within approximately two months confirms the potential for extended gains.

Investors may find value in holding AXP shares for up to 30 days after earnings beats to capitalize on this positive trend.

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The backtest reveals that the Consumer Finance Industry tends to experience a slight negative reaction after earnings beats, with a maximum return of -0.48% observed 10 days post-event. This suggests that despite earnings outperforming expectations, the industry does not benefit positively from such announcements within the tested timeframe.

The minor negative impact may indicate market skepticism or profit-taking behavior following earnings beats in this sector.

Investors should exercise caution when considering positions in the Consumer Finance Industry immediately after earnings beats, as positive surprises do not necessarily translate into short-term gains.

The backtest indicates that American Express's earnings beat positively impacted the Trading Companies and Distributors industry, which showed sustained gains over 42 days. Conversely, the Textiles, Apparel and Luxury Goods sector experienced a prolonged negative effect lasting 39 days. This divergence reflects shifting consumer spending; strength in payment and distribution services contrasts with reduced discretionary spending in luxury goods.

These findings highlight the nuanced sector rotation triggered by financial sector earnings surprises.

Investors might consider overweighting trade-linked sectors while reducing exposure to luxury goods following Amex earnings beats.

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Backtest AXP Earnings Beat Expectations

Find all upcoming company earnings reports scheduled for jul 18 2025. Get details on which companies are reporting and their expected results.

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