Tesla Faces Earnings Pressure Amid Sliding Deliveries and Analyst Divisions

Tesla is set to release Q2 earnings after market close on Wednesday, with forecasts predicting a 10% drop in revenue to $22.78 billion and a 20% drop in adjusted earnings per share to $0.42. Analysts have mixed views, with some, like UBS and JPMorgan, being bearish and others, like Wedbush, being bullish. The stock has fallen 20% this year and investors will be paying close attention to the earnings call for more than just numbers.

Tesla (TSLA) is set to release its Q2 earnings report after the market close on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. Analysts are forecasting a 10% drop in revenue to $22.78 billion and a 20% drop in adjusted earnings per share to $0.42 [1]. The stock has fallen by 20% this year, and investors will be closely watching the earnings call for more than just the numbers.

The core auto business, which drives the majority of Tesla's revenue and profit, is expected to report a 9% drop in revenue to $22.79 billion compared to the same period last year [1]. Wall Street analysts are expecting adjusted EPS of $0.43, translating to adjusted net income of $1.513 billion, down slightly from a year ago [1]. Musk's reputational hit and political activities, along with the rise of better competition and US consumer preferences for vehicles like hybrids, have contributed to Tesla's struggles.

Tesla delivered only 384,122 vehicles globally in Q2, a 13.5% drop year over year [1]. The company's robotaxi rollout, which has been a focus for Tesla and CEO Elon Musk, may provide some optimism. Tesla has expanded its robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas, with a bigger operating area and likely more vehicles coming. However, Alphabet's Waymo and Uber are also expanding their robotaxi deployments in the US [1].

Investors are eagerly awaiting updates on Tesla's plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models. The company has stated that production remains on track for new vehicles, likely including a cheaper EV, in the first half of 2025. However, there has been no indication or even renderings of a new vehicle, and the company's cheapest EV, the rear-wheel-drive Model 3 sedan, starts at around $43,000 without incentives [1].

Analysts have mixed views on Tesla's prospects. While some, like UBS and JPMorgan, are bearish, others, like Wedbush, are bullish. The earnings call will provide an opportunity for Tesla's robotaxi/AV narrative to shine, which has been front and center of Tesla stock's strength [1]. Musk may discuss fleet growth targets or expansion plans.

Tesla's stock has seen a 28% decline in chatter on Stocktwits over the past seven days, ahead of the earnings report [3]. The stock is down 18% this year but up approximately 33% over the past 12 months [3].

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-q2-earnings-preview-3-things-to-watch-100006343.html
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/stockstory:36381860c094b:0-tesla-tsla-reports-earnings-tomorrow-what-to-expect/
[3] https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/tesla-stock-sees-28-percent-slide-in-chatter-over-past-week/ch8kz4ZR5qy