The Sept. 14 Call That Tests Radiant Logistics' 32% Run-Up

Radiant Logistics, the Renton, Washington freight forwarder, has scheduled an investor call for Monday, September 14 at 4:30 p.m. to discuss financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and the year ended June 30, 2026, hosted by CEO Bohn Crain. The numbers themselves are not out yet — this is the scheduling notice. But the call lands at a moment worth sizing up: shares are up roughly 32% this year, and management spent the spring describing a "sharply divergent freight environment." For a value investor, the question on the call is not whether the company moved more freight. It is whether, after the rerating, the price and the cash the business provably keeps still line up.

Why a freight forwarder's revenue is the wrong number

The first thing to know about Radiant is that its top line is not really its revenue in the way most people think. As a non-asset-based third-party logistics firm, it arranges transportation and resells the space it buys from carriers — and that purchased transportation is included in reported revenue before it is subtracted. That is why the company, and the analysts who cover it, key on "adjusted gross profit": revenue minus the cost of the freight it resells. It is a proxy for what Radiant actually retains from each shipment.

The distinction shows up cleanly in last fiscal year's results. For the year ended June 30, 2025, revenue rose 12.5% to $902.7 million — but adjusted gross profit rose only 1.2%, to $239.4 million. Revenue can balloon on pass-through volumes and acquisitions while the value the company keeps barely moves, which is exactly what happened. The March 2026 quarter makes the same point in a soft market: revenue was essentially flat at $214.1 million, adjusted gross profit slipped 3.3% to $56.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA fell 17% to $7.8 million. Radiant measures its EBITDA margin against this adjusted gross profit, not against total revenue.

The rerating and what the market is paying for

That fiscal-2025 and spring-2026 backdrop makes the stock's run-up the interesting part. The company itself is leaning into a growth-and-technology narrative — advancing its "Navegate" platform and developing "Ray," which it calls its first AI agent — and the market has evidently been willing to pay for it. A value investor has to treat that carefully. AI agents and a digital freight platform are a story attached to a cyclical, paper-thin-margin logistics business; they become worth paying for only if they show up as higher retained value per shipment, which is exactly the adjusted gross profit number the call will report.

The balance sheet at least gives the stock a floor to attach that story to. As of March 31, 2026, Radiant held $39.6 million in cash against $25 million drawn on debt — effectively no net debt. In August it completed syndication of an amended and restated $200 million secured revolving credit facility, replacing the previous arrangement, and in November its board renewed the stock repurchase program. For a value framework that watches capital structure before anything else, that is the durable part of the case: an unlevered-ish balance sheet funding buybacks and a stated appetite for "green-field and strategic operating partner" acquisitions, provided operations keep generating the cash.

The number that answers the question

The valuation, though, depends on that "provided." Radiant's market capitalization is around $394 million, and with no meaningful net debt its enterprise value is roughly the same. Against fiscal-2025 adjusted EBITDA of $38.8 million, that is about ten times. The catch is that the trailing business is earning less — adjusted EBITDA ran 17% below year-ago levels in the March quarter — so the multiple on the current, softer run rate is steeper than the ten times the fiscal-2025 figure implies. The stock's run-up has essentially banked a return to growth in the retained-value metric before that return has been reported.

That is what the September 14 call resolves. The single number to watch is adjusted gross profit and whether it held, and held with a stabilizing margin, through a fourth quarter that management has already flagged as a challenging freight environment. If the retained value is durable and the balance sheet keeps funding buybacks and tuck-in acquisitions at reasonable prices, a roughly 10-12 times multiple on a slowly compounding logistics business is defensible value. If the rerating was bought on the AI-platform story while the underlying adjusted gross profit keeps sliding, then the stock is a cyclical logistics name trading on narrative — and the gap between price and provable cash flow is where losses come from. The call will put a number on which of those it is.