When Is a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Points to Fed Cuts Amid Iran Conflict

Bitcoin prices surpassed $73,000 on March 4, 2026, as Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, continued to accumulate the cryptocurrency according to reports. Saylor's strategy aligns with a 'buy the dip / stay long' approach and includes purchasing Bitcoin both personally and through Strategy's balance sheet. Recent transactions suggest Strategy may acquire around 1,000 BTC in a single day, expanding its holdings significantly.

Saylor's actions have been supported by increased trading activity in Strategy's perpetual preferred stock (STRC). STRC trading volume surged to $198.7 million, with much of the activity occurring above the $100 par value. This has enabled Strategy to potentially activate its at-the-market (ATM) issuance program to fund additional Bitcoin purchases.

Bitcoin's role in the context of geopolitical events has been under scrutiny. Between 2022 and 2026, major conflicts including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas escalation caused sharp price volatility in BTC and ETH as historical data shows. In 2026, Bitcoin's behavior increasingly resembles a 'commodified risk' asset, more closely correlated with the Nasdaq than with gold. This trend raises questions about its evolving identity as a financial asset.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's price movements are often linked to broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX co-founder and current CIO of Maelstrom, argues that prolonged U.S. military activities in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, may pressure the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy according to his analysis. According to Hayes, a Fed response could include lowering interest rates or expanding the money supply, both of which historically benefit Bitcoin prices.

The potential for U.S. involvement in Iran has historically led to Fed liquidity injections to stabilize the economy. Hayes' view is that prolonged military engagement increases the probability of monetary expansion, thus boosting Bitcoin's value as reported by financial sources. However, his track record for predicting Bitcoin's price has been mixed, and investors are advised to approach his forecasts with caution.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin's recent rally above $71,000 was influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty as market data indicates. This surge triggered significant liquidations, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as traders repositioned portfolios. Analysts suggest that the rally reflects positioning resets and lower supply elasticity rather than a single event-driven catalyst.

While some analysts see Bitcoin beginning to decouple from its traditional risk-asset behavior, others note that it still faces competition from traditional safe-haven assets like gold. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, Bitcoin could experience short-term volatility. Conversely, if tensions remain contained, the upward trajectory for Bitcoin appears more sustainable according to analysis.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Institutional adoption and market infrastructure improvements are seen as potential drivers for Bitcoin's future evolution as market research shows. Unlike in previous conflicts, where Bitcoin tended to plummet immediately, it showed resilience in the Middle East tensions, challenging its historical classification as a pure risk asset. On-chain data from Iran demonstrated the practical use of crypto as an escape route for citizens during crises.

Despite these developments, Bitcoin still correlates more closely with equity markets than with gold, suggesting it is not yet a true safe-haven asset. Analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin is evolving into a digital safe haven or remains a high-beta risk asset. This uncertainty underscores the importance of broader liquidity conditions and geopolitical developments in shaping Bitcoin's price trajectory.

Arthur Hayes has made a bold prediction, forecasting Bitcoin could reach $750,000 by 2027, citing a liquidity cycle driven by U.S. fiscal spending and potential geopolitical tensions according to his forecast. He argues that government spending and conflict financing will lead to monetary expansion, which benefits scarce assets like Bitcoin. While his prediction is ambitious, it highlights the growing influence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors on Bitcoin's valuation.