Spot palladium rises nearly 3% to $1,249.85/oz

Palladium prices rose nearly 3% on July 9, 2026, reaching $1,249.85 per troy ounce, as market participants reacted to evolving expectations around U.S. monetary policy and shifting supply dynamics. The increase followed a period of volatility, with fallen to $1,223.50 per ounce just one day earlier. The upward movement came amid reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, as softer-than-anticipated U.S. jobs data led to a reassessment of near-term tightening.

The weaker dollar also supported precious metals, including palladium, as dollar-denominated assets became more attractive to international investors. However, gains were partially offset by renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which raised concerns about energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures.

On the supply side, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer, anticipates a 2% decline in output this year due to lower ore grades, while South African platinum group metal mines continue to face operational challenges. These constraints, combined with a projected slowdown in demand from the automotive sector—particularly as China’s electric vehicle exports surged—have contributed to a tightening market.

Looking ahead, analysts expect palladium to trade at $1,328.27 per ounce by the end of the quarter and $1,530.85 in 12 months, according to global macroeconomic models. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, monetary policy shifts, and industrial demand trends, all of which will continue to influence price movements in the near term.