ETFs & Stocks Likely to Win From Back-to-School Season

Back-to-school and college is one of the busiest shopping seasons (mid-July to mid-September) in the United States. As of early August, shoppers had completed 44% of their average shopping lists, up significantly from 23% in early July, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

However, the timing of remaining purchases largely depends on back-to-school deadlines, with 52% of K-12 shoppers and 48% of college shoppers saying they expect to finish their shopping by one to two weeks before school begins.

Back-to-School Spending Hits Record High

Total expected back-to-school spending by K-12 and college shoppers is projected to reach a record $146.8 billion in 2026, up from $128.2 billion in 2025, per NRF. K-12 spending is expected to rise to $43.3 billion from $39.4 billion, while college spending is projected to climb to $103.5 billion from $88.8 billion. The sharp uptick highlights resilient back-to-school demand despite the ongoing consumer efforts to seek value.

Per-Person Spending Rises

Expected per-person back-to-school spending is projected to increase for college shoppers to a record $1,438 in 2026, up from $1,326 in 2025. K-12 spending is expected to edge up to $864 from $858. While college spending has risen sharply over the years, K-12 spending has remained relatively stable since reaching $890 in 2023, per NRF.

Back-to-School Shopping Shifts In-Store

Back-to-school shopping is shifting from online channels toward physical value retailers. Online shopping fell from 55% to 50% among K–12 shoppers and from 48% to 41% among college shoppers, while discount-store usage remained relatively resilient. This reflects inflation-conscious consumers seeking deals and consolidating purchases in stores.

The trend puts focus on Target TGT, which offers exposure to school supplies, apparel, home goods, and college-related purchases. TGT has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF XLP also deserves a look.

Shoppers Turn to AI and Deals

Consumers are increasingly turning to AI to plan back-to-school shopping, with 61% using generative AI and other AI-powered tools to find deals, compare prices and get recommendations, per NRF. This puts the focus on Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF CHAT.

Retailers Focus on Value

Retailers are emphasizing value, with 73% of back-to-school shoppers saying sales and promotions were as good as or better than last year. On average, 48% of purchases were driven by coupons, sales or promotions, highlighting consumers’ focus on deals, per NRF.

In this regard, Dollar General DG could be in focus. It is one of the largest discount retailers in the United States. The stock has surged 8.8% over the past month (as of Sept. 4, 2026).

Back-to-School Tech Buying Trends

Consumers are also changing their back-to-school electronics preferences. While laptops remain the most popular purchase, fewer shoppers are buying them, partly because schools are increasingly providing devices directly to students.

In fact, 20% of shoppers who are not buying electronics say their schools provide them. Meanwhile, K-12 shoppers are increasingly turning to desktop computers, with the share planning to purchase them rising from 17% in 2021 to 21% in 2026, per NRF.

No wonder, one should note that the pillar of electronics, i.e., semiconductors, is expected to see higher demand. This puts focus on VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH.

Online Search Leads Inspiration

Online search (about 44%) is the top source of inspiration for college shoppers, followed by friends and family (33%) and Instagram (19%), per NRF. Younger shoppers aged 18-24 also turn heavily to TikTok, Pinterest and retailer apps, while in-store browsing, email advertisements, Facebook and X round out their top 10 sources.As a result, ProShares Online Retail ETF ONLN should be an ETF to keep an eye on in this regard.

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