Tesla Earnings Preview: Weak Quarter Ahead as Robotaxi, Humanoid, and SpaceX Take Center Stage, Can Musk Save It?

Tesla is set to report its first quarter results after the market close today, with investors bracing for a soft quarter while increasingly shifting focus toward the company's long term AI and autonomy ambitions.

Expectations remain muted. Analysts forecast revenue between roughly $21.4 billion and $22.3 billion, implying a sequential decline from $24.9 billion in Q4, but an increase from $19.3 billion a year ago due to a low base. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to come in around $0.35 to $0.37, up from $0.27 a year ago.

Automotive gross margin will be the most closely watched metric. With ongoing price competition and rising costs, a drop below 17% could further weaken the profitability narrative.

Despite CEO Elon Musk's continued push to position Tesla as an AI and robotics company, the core automotive business still dominates financial performance, and recent data suggests growing pressure.

Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, missing consensus estimates by roughly 7,000 units. While deliveries rose 6.3% year over year, the comparison is somewhat distorted, as the prior year quarter was weakened by Model Y production shutdowns tied to the Juniper refresh.

More concerning is the widening gap between production and deliveries. Tesla produced over 50,000 more vehicles than it sold, with the bulk of the surplus concentrated in Model 3 and Model Y. That imbalance points to softening demand rather than logistical constraints.

The energy segment, previously a consistent growth driver, also showed signs of weakness. Tesla deployed 8.8 GWh of energy storage in the quarter, down 38% from the prior quarter and well below expectations of 12 to 14 GWh. While still a long term growth pillar, the sharp sequential decline may temper near term optimism.

While the near term fundamentals look challenged, investor attention is increasingly centered on Tesla's future bets, particularly Robotaxi, Full Self Driving, and humanoid robotics.

The company recently expanded its unsupervised Robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston, adding to its initial rollout in Austin. However, key details such as fleet size, utilization rates, and revenue per mile remain undisclosed, leaving investors searching for clarity on scalability and monetization.

Full Self Driving could be a major issue, as Musk has for years promised full automation of Tesla vehicles. Owners of Hardware 3 vehicles are seeking updates on compatibility with future unsupervised driving capabilities, and the timeline still needs to be clarified.

Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is also in focus. The upcoming third generation version is expected to feature significantly improved dexterity, with low volume production targeted for later this year and broader scaling in 2027. Musk continues to position Optimus as a central pillar of Tesla's long term valuation.

At the same time, capital expenditures are set to surge. Tesla is guiding for more than $20 billion in capex this year, up sharply from $8.5 billion in 2025, driven by investments in AI infrastructure, chip development, robotics, and manufacturing expansion. This ramp is expected to pressure free cash flow, potentially pushing it into negative territory.

A key part of that spending includes Tesla's ambitious chip and manufacturing plans, including its next generation AI5 chip and the proposed Terafab facility. While these initiatives could strengthen Tesla's vertical integration, they also introduce significant execution and financial risks.

With SpaceX, which has acquired Musk's artificial intelligence startup xAI, reportedly preparing for a potential IPO later this year, some investors are questioning how Musk will balance his focus on Tesla, given its massive valuation. Musk has previously suggested the possibility of early access to a SpaceX IPO for Tesla investors, but whether that will materialize remains uncertain as complexities continue to grow.