14% chance the AI bubble bursts by year-end - Polymarket

According to prediction market data from Polymarket, traders are assigning a 14% probability of AI downturn. This market defines an industry downturn as the occurrence of at least three specific events within a 90-day period. These include a 50% decline in NVIDIA’s stock price from its all-time high, a 40% drop in the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), bankruptcy or acquisition of OpenAI or Anthropic, a drop in H100 rental prices to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, or a 50% decline in major AI hardware supplier such as TSMC, ASML, or Broadcom.

Despite the current 14% probability, traders remain divided on the likelihood of a near-term correction. The market has attracted $2.9 million in trading volume since its launch in November 2025. Analysts and investors have noted that while AI infrastructure spending is projected to reach trillions by 2030, leading labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic continue to operate at a loss, with no clear path to profitability before 2028.

Notably, prominent investors like Michael Burry have raised concerns about the sustainability of current AI market dynamics, drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble. However, recent model releases from Microsoft and Anthropic suggest continued innovation and competitive positioning in the sector. Upcoming earnings reports and developer conferences may provide further clarity on the industry’s financial health and adoption trends.