ZECUSDT Market Overview: Volatility and Correctionary Pressure in Focus

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at $454.17 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $533.74 before closing at $506.41 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-13. The total 24-hour volume was 759,119.52 ZEC, with a turnover of $387,295,410.96, reflecting strong intraday volatility.

Summary

• • •
• Price declined from a high of $533.74 to close at $506.41, showing bearish exhaustion.
• High volatility seen with multiple swings above $500 and a low of $481.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions earlier, now showing potential oversold signs.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at a potential breakout.
• Volume surged during the rally but declined during the pullback, suggesting possible divergences.

Structure & Formations

The ZEC/USDT pair formed a broad, descending triangle pattern on the 15-minute chart, with a critical support level forming around $490–$495. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared after the high at $533.74, followed by a long lower shadow at $506.41. A doji formed near $510.43, signaling indecision and potential reversal. The pullback from $533.74 to $492.73 suggests a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, aligning with key resistance-turned-support levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, forming a bearish signal. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA is above the 200-period SMA, indicating a bullish trend in the broader context. However, the 100-period SMA is acting as a short-term resistance, currently around $515–$520.

MACD & RSI

The 12, 26 MACD line crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover. RSI dropped from overbought territory (above 70) to near 40, suggesting potential oversold conditions and a possible reversal. However, divergences between price and RSI during the pullback should be monitored for bearish confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the rally from $492.73 to $533.74, with price reaching the upper band. The recent pullback has compressed the bands, signaling a potential breakout. Price currently resides near the middle band, suggesting neutral momentum but with a strong bearish bias forming.

Volume & Turnover

The peak volume occurred at $533.74, with a turnover of $513,693,099.23. Volume during the subsequent pullback was lower, indicating possible divergence. A volume spike at $492.73 confirmed the key support level. Turnover during the bearish leg was relatively lower, suggesting reduced conviction among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the swing high at $533.74 and swing low at $481.00 formed a 38.2% retracement at $513.05 and a 61.8% retracement at $496.80. Price is currently consolidating around the 61.8% level, indicating a potential support zone to watch in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based strategy applied to ZECUSDT from 1 Jan 2022 through 13 Nov 2025 showed mixed performance, with an overall return of -13.9% and an annualized return of 8.1%. The strategy, using standard 30/70 RSI thresholds with 10% stop-loss, 100% take-profit, and 30-day holding limits, demonstrated moderate average returns of 1.28% per trade. However, the drawdown of 68.8% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.17 suggest significant volatility and risk. The strategy appears to struggle during large price swings, where RSI signals may lag. Adjustments to thresholds or inclusion of volume-based filters could enhance reliability, particularly in volatile conditions like those observed recently.