ZCash (ZEC) Price Momentum and On-Chain Activity: A Deep Dive into Emerging Buying Pressure and Breakout Potential

Zcash (ZEC) has emerged as one of the most compelling narratives in the cryptocurrency market in late 2025, with its price surging to a four-year high of $300 by October and November, according to a TradingKey analysis. This rally, driven by a confluence of privacy demand, institutional adoption, and strategic upgrades, has sparked renewed interest in the privacy-focused asset. However, the question remains: Is this momentum sustainable, or is ZEC poised for a correction? By analyzing on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and technical indicators, this article evaluates the evidence of emerging buying pressure and the potential for a breakout.

On-Chain Activity: A Tale of Privacy and Volatility

Zcash's on-chain activity in 2025 reflects a mix of growth and volatility. Transaction volume spiked multiple times, with median fees peaking at $29 in September 2025, driven by short-lived bursts of demand, as reported in a Sandmark analysis. While the average number of active addresses per month has hovered around 1,900-up slightly from Q3 but still below historical highs-the shielded pool activity has reached an all-time high of 959 ZEC, according to a Seeking Alpha article. This surge in shielded transactions underscores Zcash's role as a privacy-first protocol, with users increasingly opting for its zero-knowledge proof (zk-SNARK) technology to obscure transaction details, as discussed in a Medium price predictions post.

The Zcash Foundation's upcoming development fund vote in November 2025 further highlights the project's community-driven governance model. However, regulatory headwinds, including the EU's Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) targeting privacy coins, remain a wildcard. Despite these risks, Zcash's optional transparency model-allowing users to choose between shielded and transparent transactions-positions it as a pragmatic solution for privacy-conscious users, as noted in the Zcash Q3 review published earlier this year.Zcash 2025 Q3 Review: Architecting Digital Financial Privacy

Buying Pressure and Institutional Accumulation

Zcash's recent price action has been accompanied by robust on-chain signals of buying pressure. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures the accumulation/distribution of assets, has shown strong institutional accumulation, while the Money Flow Index (MFI) surged above 95, signaling intense buying interest, according to a 99Bitcoins piece. Additionally, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio stands at 106, significantly below its historical high of 400, suggesting ZEC is undervalued relative to its network activity, per a Coinpedia analysis.

Institutional support has further fueled ZEC's rally. Grayscale's reopening of Zcash Trust subscriptions in October 2025 led to $46 million in net inflows, reflecting renewed institutional confidence, as highlighted in the Zcash Q3 review. Meanwhile, the Grayscale Zcash Trust's holdings now account for 27% of the circulating supply, with 4.42 million ZEC held in shielded pools, according to an AMB Crypto report. This concentration of institutional demand contrasts with retail-driven exchange inflows, which spiked $7.85 million in late September, potentially signaling profit-taking or short-term speculative activity, as noted in a Changelly forecast.

Technical Indicators: Bullish Patterns and Overbought Risks

Zcash's price action has formed classic bullish patterns, including a golden cross and an inverse head-and-shoulders formation, both of which historically precede sustained upward trends, according to an Ecoinimist report. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has, however, entered overbought territory (RSI-14 at 82.5), raising concerns about near-term consolidation or a pullback, per a Cryptonomist analysis. The MACD histogram, while positive, has begun to flatten, suggesting momentum may be waning, in line with the MidForex forecast.

Analysts project a potential breakout above $300 if ZEC sustains its current trajectory, with key resistance levels at $270–$300 and $336 (as described in the Changelly forecast referenced above). However, a breakdown below the $130–$127 support zone could trigger a retest of earlier lows, particularly if regulatory pressures intensify, according to a BeInCrypto predictions.

Regulatory and Market Risks

Zcash's privacy-centric model faces mounting regulatory scrutiny. The EU's proposed AMLR, which could ban privacy coins by 2027, and U.S. Senate drafts targeting KYC/AML compliance for shielded transactions, pose existential risks. While Zcash's optional transparency model may mitigate some of these concerns, the long-term viability of its privacy features remains uncertain.

Additionally, Zcash's market share faces competition from emerging L1 and L2 privacy layers, such as NymVPN's integration with shielded ZEC transactions, a dynamic explored in the earlier Seeking Alpha coverage. These innovations could either bolster Zcash's utility or dilute its relevance in a rapidly evolving privacy ecosystem.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition

Zcash's 2025 rally is underpinned by strong on-chain demand, institutional adoption, and a growing preference for privacy. However, the asset's overbought technical indicators and regulatory uncertainties necessitate caution. For investors, ZEC represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity: a potential breakout above $300 could validate its role as a privacy leader, but a regulatory crackdown or profit-taking selloff could derail its momentum.

As the Zcash Foundation prepares for its post-2025 funding vote and the market digests the implications of the EU's AMLR, the coming months will be critical in determining whether ZEC can sustain its ascent-or if it's merely a flash in the pan.