Zcash (ZEC) Price Momentum and Breakout Potential: A Deep Dive into On-Chain Fundamentals and Key Support Levels

Zcash (ZEC) has emerged as a compelling case study in bullish momentum, with its price trajectory in October 2025 reflecting a confluence of technical strength and on-chain fundamentals that suggest a high-probability breakout scenario. As of this analysis, ZEC trades at $238, maintaining a firm hold above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) after a critical rebound from the $187 support level, according to an Ambcrypto analysis. This level, which has withstood multiple tests, now acts as a psychological floor, reinforcing the narrative of a potential upward retest of the $300 resistance zone-a threshold that could validate a sustained bullish trend, the Ambcrypto analysis notes.

Technical Resilience and Momentum Indicators

The Stochastic RSI, a momentum oscillator, has shown a notable divergence from the oversold zone, signaling a deceleration in selling pressure and a shift in buyer sentiment, as noted by the Ambcrypto analysis. This technical cue aligns with ZEC's price action, which has demonstrated resilience against short-term volatility. For instance, despite a recent pullback to $254-a 388.93% rally over 30 days-the asset has retained its upward trajectory, indicating robust institutional and retail accumulation, according to an InsideBitcoins analysis.

A critical factor underpinning this momentum is the interplay between spot and futures markets. According to CryptoQuant's Cumulative Volume Delta data, buyer dominance has surged over the past four days, with inflows into spot markets outpacing futures liquidations - a dynamic highlighted in the Ambcrypto coverage. This dynamic suggests that retail investors are increasingly accumulating ZEC at lower price points, while institutional activity remains neutral to bullish.

On-Chain Fundamentals: Accumulation and Liquidity

On-chain metrics further corroborate the bullish thesis. ZEC's blockchain analytics reveal a steady rise in retail accumulation, with smaller wallets (holding <10 ZEC) experiencing a 22% increase in net inflows over the past month, a trend the Ambcrypto piece documents. This trend is significant because it indicates growing grassroots interest in ZEC's privacy-centric use case, which could drive long-term demand.

Liquidity conditions also favor a breakout. The $300 level, while psychologically significant, is technically reinforced by historical resistance clusters. If bulls manage to breach this threshold with sustained volume, it could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and institutional buying, propelling ZEC toward $350–$400 levels, the Ambcrypto coverage suggests. Conversely, a failure to hold above $238 would likely see a retest of the $187 support, where buyers have historically intervened, per the Ambcrypto narrative.

Breakout Strategy and Risk Management

For traders considering a breakout strategy, the $300–$305 range represents a high-conviction entry point, with a stop-loss below $238 to mitigate downside risk. The reward-to-risk ratio here is favorable, given the 30% potential gain to $300 and the 38% rally already achieved in October, points the Ambcrypto and InsideBitcoins pieces discuss. Additionally, AI-driven forecasts project a 24-hour trading range of $240.29–$250.58, with longer-term models suggesting a possible ascent to $1,295.68 by 2030, according to a MidForex forecast. While these projections are speculative, they underscore the asset's volatility and speculative appeal.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors

Zcash's current trajectory reflects a rare alignment of technical strength, on-chain accumulation, and market sentiment. While the $300 level remains a critical test, the underlying fundamentals-particularly retail-driven accumulation and improved liquidity-suggest that ZEC is well-positioned for a breakout. Investors should monitor the 20-day EMA as a dynamic support and the Stochastic RSI for early signs of momentum exhaustion. In a broader context, ZEC's performance could serve as a bellwether for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies in a regulatory environment increasingly focused on compliance and utility, the Ambcrypto analysis concludes.