La volatilidad y los cambios de liquidez de Zcash en un mercado de criptomonedas cambiante

In late 2025, Zcash (ZEC) has emerged as a paradoxical force in the crypto market: a privacy-focused asset defying broader downturns while simultaneously creating self-reinforcing liquidity constraints. With a year-to-date price surge exceeding 1,100% and shielded pool adoption reaching 29-30% of the circulating supply, ZEC's trajectory raises critical questions about short-squeeze potential and capital reallocation risks in a market increasingly polarized between privacy and transparency.

Liquidity Crunch: The Mechanics of a Privacy-Driven Squeeze

Zcash's liquidity crisis is rooted in its own success. The Orchard shielded pools, which now hold 4.2 million ZEC (up from 2.66 million in March 2025), have created a mechanical scarcity by locking coins into low-velocity, privacy-preserving transactions. This has reduced the tradable supply to ~11 million ZEC, a fraction of the total circulating supply. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle: rising prices incentivize further shielding, which exacerbates liquidity constraints, fueling further price spikes.

Derivatives data underscores the fragility. Over $78 million in ZEC positions face liquidation if prices drop to $466, a level that could trigger a cascade of forced selling according to CoinMarketCap. Yet, the same data reveals a bearish technical pattern-a rising wedge-suggesting a potential 45% price drop to $289 if support levels break according to CoinMarketCap. This duality-liquidity crunch and technical vulnerability-creates a volatile environment ripe for a short squeeze.

Short-Squeeze Catalysts: Whale Activity and Arthur Hayes' $1,000 Prediction

Short-squeeze risks are amplified by aggressive whale behavior and high-profile bullish calls. Top ZEC addresses increased holdings by 47% in December 2025, pulling $30M+ off exchanges according to CoinMarketCap. This on-chain activity, combined with Arthur Hayes' $1,000 price target for 2026, has already driven a 40% price surge since late 2025 according to 99Bitcoins. Such concentrated buying pressure, coupled with the shrinking tradable supply, could trigger a liquidity vacuum if short sellers are forced to cover positions.

The market's speculative fervor is further evidenced by ZEC futures open interest, which ballooned from $18.75 million in September to $1.377 billion by November 2025. Daily liquidations exceeding $51 million during peak periods according to PanewsLab highlight the precarious balance between retail and institutional positioning. A sudden shift in sentiment-whether from regulatory news or a failed price target-could ignite a short squeeze with cascading effects.

Capital Reallocation: Privacy as a Countercyclical Asset

Zcash's outperformance against Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q4 2025 signals a broader capital reallocation toward privacy-focused protocols. While BTC and ETH declined amid macroeconomic headwinds, ZEC surged 800% for the year, driven by institutional adoption of its optional privacy model. Grayscale's ZEC investment product and the launch of Zebra 3.1 node upgrades have further solidified its appeal as a regulated privacy play according to CoinMarketCap.

This reallocation is not merely speculative. Privacy coins like ZEC are increasingly viewed as a hedge against surveillance-based monetary systems, with shielded transaction usage rising to 4.98 million ZEC by October 2025. Institutional investors, in particular, favor ZEC over Monero (XMR) due to its compliance-friendly structure and availability on major exchanges. As regulatory scrutiny intensifies, this trend could accelerate, further straining liquidity in traditional crypto assets.

Regulatory Risks and the Path Forward

Despite its momentum, Zcash faces existential risks. Stricter oversight of privacy coins-already a regulatory flashpoint-could trigger delistings or trading restrictions, according to 99Bitcoins and compressing liquidity and amplifying volatility. The U.S. Treasury's recent focus on anti-money laundering (AML) compliance for shielded transactions adds another layer of uncertainty according to MEXC.

However, Zcash's technical roadmap offers a counterbalance. The Orchard protocol's efficiency gains and reduced fees aim to lower the barrier to privacy adoption, potentially broadening its user base. If these upgrades succeed, ZEC could transition from a niche privacy asset to a mainstream infrastructure layer, mitigating some liquidity risks.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Game of Privacy and Positioning

Zcash's 2025 rally is a masterclass in capital reallocation and short-term positioning. The interplay of liquidity crunches, speculative shorting, and privacy-driven demand creates a volatile landscape where a single catalyst-regulatory news, a failed price target, or a whale's next move-could trigger a short squeeze with market-wide implications. For investors, the key lies in balancing the asset's long-term privacy value proposition with its short-term liquidity vulnerabilities. In a crypto market increasingly defined by polarized narratives, Zcash's trajectory offers both opportunity and peril.