Zcash/Tether Market Overview (ZECUSDT)

• ZEC/USDT surged 19.2% on strong breakout above key resistance
• 15-minute RSI peaked near overbought 80, indicating short-term momentum exhaustion
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened 17.5% from prior range
• Volume increased 2.3× in final 4 hours, confirming bullish continuation
• Price rejected at 148.0–150.63 range, now consolidating near 151.6

Zcash/Tether (ZECUSDT) opened at $128.87 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET and closed at $151.6 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of $158.0 and a low of $123.54. Total volume was 313,508.13 ZEC, and notional turnover was $49,921,084.52 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear ascending breakout above the 148.0–150.63 consolidation zone, forming a strong bullish continuation pattern. A 15-minute hammer candle at 10:45 ET (155.5 open, 155.5 close, high of 156.74) signaled a potential reversal following a bearish thrust. A doji at 11:45 ET (149.88 open, 149.88 close, high of 149.88) reflected indecision in the short term. Key support levels at $145.73 and $143.26 were tested, but price held firm.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were in a bullish alignment, with price above both. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) showed the pair in a multi-period uptrend, with the 200-day SMA acting as a strong support at $123.45. The 50/100 SMA convergence suggested potential for continued momentum but also risk of short-term correction.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained bullish with a histogram expanding during the final 4 hours, confirming the breakout. RSI reached 80 at 09:15 ET, indicating overbought conditions. However, price held above the 145.73–147.0 support range, suggesting RSI divergence may be false. Momentum appears to be slowing, with MACD crossing into neutral territory on the 15-minute chart.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the final 6 hours, indicating heightened volatility. Price remained above the upper band at 148.53–150.63 during the breakout and now trades within the bands at the 68% percentile. The widening bands suggest market uncertainty but also confirm the recent upward thrust.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to $14.9M in the last 2.5 hours, with the final 15-minute candle showing a 212k ZEC volume spike. Notional turnover increased from $1.3M at 12:00 ET to $4.9M at 15:15 ET. Price and volume aligned during the 155.5–154.98 consolidation phase, reinforcing the bullish narrative. No significant price-volume divergence was observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings (148.1–158.0) showed price testing the 61.8% retracement level at $154.2, failing to break through to the 78.6% zone. Daily Fibonacci levels (from $123.54 to $158.0) placed key support at $145.5 and resistance at $154.3. Price appears to be finding a new balance around 151.6, aligning with the 38.2% retracement from the recent peak.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the 15-minute MACD crossover combined with Bollinger Band breakouts. Entries could be triggered when price closes above the 20-period EMA and the MACD histogram is expanding. A stop-loss could be placed below the 145.5 Fibonacci level, with a take-profit target at 61.8% of the daily swing. This aligns with the observed breakout and strong volume confirmation in the final hours. The strategy would benefit from incorporating volatility expansion and RSI divergence for risk management.