YieldBasis/USDC Market Overview

• YBUSDC opened at 0.5928 and closed at 0.5818, with a high of 0.6164 and a low of 0.5424.
• A sharp sell-off from 0.5928 to 0.5587 in early evening ET marked a key bearish reversal.
• Volume spiked during the breakdown, with a massive 439,868.5 volume candle at 18:45 ET.
• RSI and MACD both signaled bearish momentum, with prices below key moving averages.
• Prices tested major Fibonacci levels during the recovery in the overnight session.

YieldBasis/USDC (YBUSDC) opened at 0.5928 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.5818 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.6164 and a low of 0.5424. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 3,041,587.2 units, with a notional turnover of $1,788,157.9 based on the weighted average prices. The price action revealed a volatile 24-hour period, including a sharp breakdown followed by a partial overnight recovery.

Structure & Formations

A clear bearish reversal was observed around 18:45 ET with a massive 15-minute candle showing a low of 0.5538 and a close of 0.5587. This marked a breakdown from prior support levels and was confirmed by subsequent lower lows and bearish engulfing patterns. Later in the overnight session, the price showed signs of short-covering, forming a small bullish reversal at 04:30 ET. Key support levels now appear to be consolidating around 0.58–0.57, with a potential next target at 0.56–0.55 should the bearish trend continue.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both below the current price throughout the 24-hour period, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, which may indicate a longer-term downtrend. These indicators suggest that the market remains in a bearish phase, and any short-term rallies may face resistance at prior moving average levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session, with the histogram turning negative and narrowing, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The RSI moved into oversold territory around 19:30 ET (RSI: 30) but failed to rebound meaningfully, which is typically a sign of continued bearish pressure. While the RSI later recovered slightly into neutral territory, it failed to reach overbought levels, suggesting that bulls have not regained control.

The Bollinger Bands reflected high volatility during the breakdown period, with the price closing near the lower band at 18:45 ET. The expansion of the bands indicates increased market uncertainty, and the narrowing of the bands in the overnight session suggests a potential consolidation phase. The price remains within the bands but is hovering near the lower boundary, which could imply that sellers are still in control unless buyers push the price above the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown phase, particularly with the 439,868.5 volume candle at 18:45 ET. This large volume during a sharp price decline confirmed the bearish move. In contrast, the overnight recovery was supported by moderate volume, indicating limited conviction. The divergence between price and volume suggests that any further upward movement may lack strong buyer participation, while any downward move could still have strong selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.5424 to 0.578 shows that the price is currently testing the 61.8% retracement level at ~0.57. If this level fails to hold, the next key support could be the 78.6% level around 0.56. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 61.8% retracement level of the broader bullish trend from earlier in the year, which may indicate a longer-term bearish scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish patterns observed, a robust backtest on the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern could provide valuable insights into potential short-term trading opportunities. Focusing on the YieldBasis/USDC (YBUSDC) pair, the strategy would involve shorting on the formation of a confirmed Bearish Engulfing candle and exiting after a fixed 3-day holding period. A stop-loss at the high of the engulfing candle and a take-profit target at the 1.5x risk level could help manage risk. This approach would be tested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-31 to assess its effectiveness in both trending and ranging conditions.