Yield Guild Games/Tether (YGGUSDT) Market Overview

• YGGUSDT declined sharply from 0.1605 to 0.1515 amid rising volume and bearish momentum.
• The RSI fell into oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term rebound.
• Key support at 0.1515–0.1511 was tested, with price consolidating above it at 0.1515.
• Volatility expanded after 00:00 ET, with a sharp pullback from 0.1595 to 0.1526.
• MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum amid declining price action.

The YGGUSDT pair opened at 0.1603 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1515 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1608 and a low of 0.1511. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10,799,475.6, while notional turnover (amount) reached 1,019,546. Price action suggests a bearish bias with a key support zone now established around 0.1515–0.1511.

Structurally, the pair formed a bearish continuation pattern with multiple lower highs and a declining trend channel. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 00:30–01:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels include 0.1515, 0.1520, and 0.1525, while resistance levels appear at 0.1535, 0.1545, and 0.1555. A large bearish candle formed between 12:00 and 12:45 ET as the price dropped from 0.1595 to 0.1580, signaling strong bearish pressure. A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at 0.1541, which may act as resistance during a rebound.

The RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory after 03:00 ET, suggesting a potential rebound. However, the MACD turned negative and remained in bearish territory throughout the session, confirming the downtrend. Bollinger Bands showed an expansion in volatility between 00:00 and 04:00 ET, with the price testing the lower band multiple times. This indicates high volatility and potential mean reversion to the middle band at 0.1545–0.1550.

Volume spiked significantly after 00:00 ET, reaching a peak of 694,753.2 at 02:00 ET. This was accompanied by a sharp drop in price from 0.1589 to 0.1529, indicating strong selling pressure. Notional turnover also rose during the pullback, reinforcing the bearish move. A divergence appears to be forming between the RSI and price as the RSI rose while the price remained flat near 0.1515, suggesting a potential reversal. Investors should monitor the 0.1515–0.1520 zone closely for signs of a bullish breakout or continued bearish pressure.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours could bring a short-term bounce if the 0.1515–0.1520 support holds. However, a break below this level could accelerate the decline toward 0.1500. Traders should remain cautious given the fragile RSI oversold condition and the strong bearish MACD.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests using the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart as a dynamic support/resistance level, combined with a long position entry when price closes above this level and RSI confirms a bullish divergence. Conversely, a short position would be triggered when price closes below the EMA and RSI shows bearish divergence. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish divergence and potential bounce in RSI from oversold levels, making it a viable short-term trading approach if the 0.1515–0.1520 zone holds. If the EMA breaks further downward, the strategy may pivot to short-term bearish bias.