Yield Guild Games/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• YGGUSDT declined from a 24-hour high of $0.11 to a close near $0.1047 amid heavy volume.
• Momentum indicators suggest bearish exhaustion but not oversold conditions.
• Volatility has risen, with price breaking below key Bollinger Band support levels.
• Volume spiked during the early hours of the session, preceding the pullback.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential near-term support at $0.1036–$0.1013.

Yield Guild Games/Tether (YGGUSDT) opened at $0.1081 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1047 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from a high of $0.11 to a low of $0.1013. Total volume for the session was 54.8 million, with a notional turnover of $5.74 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action reveals a bearish breakdown after a failed bullish attempt to test the $0.11 resistance. A large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 00:00 ET marked a critical pivot point. A key support zone appears to be forming between $0.1036 and $0.1013, where several Fibonacci and moving average levels congregate. The bearish momentum appears to be accelerating as price continues to test the lower band of the Bollinger structure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily time frame, the 50-period MA remains above the 100- and 200-period lines, suggesting a medium-term downtrend is in place. Price has yet to retest the 50-day MA, which is currently at ~$0.1090, and a failure to do so could deepen the bearish narrative.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the session, with the line crossing below the signal line to confirm bearish momentum. RSI stands at ~35, indicating moderate bearish energy without reaching oversold territory. A retest of the RSI 30 level could offer a potential short-term buying opportunity.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the session, with a sharp drop pushing price below the lower Bollinger Band at $0.1046. The widening of the band suggests a period of heightened uncertainty, with price likely to remain in a consolidating phase until a breakout is confirmed. A close above the upper band or a break below the lower band could signal a shift in direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning hours, especially at 05:30 ET, with a massive 1.14 million contracts traded as price plummeted from $0.1072 to $0.1045. Notional turnover followed in line with volume, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. Divergence between volume and price during the afternoon hours may suggest some short-term stabilizing pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the $0.1013–$0.11 range, price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level at $0.1044. A close below this level could extend the move to the 78.6% retracement at ~$0.1030. If buyers re-engage, the 38.2% level at $0.1061 could become a short-term ceiling for a potential rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

To build a precise back-test we’ll need a few extra details:
1. Stock universe – Which specific ticker(s) should we evaluate? (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, SPY, etc.)
2. Trade logic – Should a MACD “Death Cross” (MACD line crossing below its signal line) be treated as:
a) A signal to go short, then cover on the next “Golden Cross”?
b) A signal to exit an existing long position (no shorting)?
3. Risk controls – Any stop-loss, take-profit, or max-holding-days constraints you’d like applied?
4. Price type – Use daily close prices (default) or something else?

Let me know and I’ll run the back-test from 2022-01-01 through today (2025-11-04).