Toma de ganancias al final del año y presiones de liquidez: navegando contra corriente en los mercados de criptomonedas

The crypto markets in late 2025 have been defined by a confluence of profit-taking, liquidity strains, and macroeconomic uncertainty, creating a volatile environment for investors. As Bitcoin erased its annual gains and flirted with $85,000 in mid-November, the interplay of institutional rebalancing, miner margin pressures, and shifting monetary policy signals has underscored the fragility of the current price structure. For strategic positioning ahead of 2026, understanding these dynamics-and their implications for market resilience-is critical.

Profit-Taking and Structural Selling Pressures

The November 2025 selloff was driven by aggressive profit-taking from long-term holders and short-term sellers. Over 400,000 coins held for more than seven years were transacted during the month, reflecting a wave of capital rotation into higher-beta altcoin opportunities and traditional assets. Long-term holders realized an average of $1.3 billion in profits daily, exacerbating downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. This behavior aligns with historical patterns in bull markets, where 32% corrections are not uncommon.

Miners also played a pivotal role in amplifying liquidity strains. Forced selling to cover operational costs-such as the 1,898 BTC sold at $102,637-highlighted the sector's vulnerability to margin pressures. Meanwhile, institutional investors rebalanced portfolios, contributing to record outflows of $3.79 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in November. These outflows mirrored broader risk-asset rotations, as central banks like the Bank of Japan signaled tighter monetary policies, further dampening speculative demand.

Liquidity Deterioration and Macro Sensitivity

The crypto market's liquidity environment has deteriorated sharply. Spot trading volumes and ETF inflows have weakened, while futures positioning remains cautious, with open interest and volatility spreads contracting to multi-cycle lows. This thin liquidity has made Bitcoin highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments. For instance, the Federal Reserve's December meeting-where policymakers hinted at prolonged high rates-spurred a surge in short-dated implied volatility as traders sought downside protection.

Compounding these challenges, on-chain metrics paint a mixed picture. Active addresses and realized capital growth remain near cycle lows, signaling subdued retail participation. Yet, Bitcoin's ability to stabilize above $85,000 suggests that patient demand-primarily from long-term holders and institutional buyers-continues to anchor the market. This duality underscores the tension between near-term selling pressures and underlying structural demand.

Strategic Positioning for 2026

For investors navigating these headwinds, strategic positioning must balance caution with conviction. Three key considerations emerge:

1. Hedging Macro Risks: Given the Fed's hawkish stance and global central bank policies, crypto portfolios should incorporate defensive positioning. This includes allocating to options strategies that hedge against rate hikes or dollar strength, while maintaining exposure to assets with strong institutional-grade fundamentals according to institutional adoption trends.

2. Prioritizing Institutional-Grade Assets: The November selloff revealed that institutional investors remain net buyers at key support levels. Assets with robust on-chain metrics-such as Bitcoin's 14-day RSI returning to midrange levels-may offer attractive entry points for long-term holders according to market analysis.

3. Monitoring On-Chain Flows: The interplay between miner selling, ETF outflows, and long-term holder activity will remain critical. Investors should closely track realized profit rates and active address metrics to gauge whether the market is nearing a stabilization phase according to on-chain insights.

Conclusion

The crypto market's near-term trajectory hinges on resolving liquidity strains and macroeconomic uncertainty. While profit-taking and forced selling have created headwinds, the persistence of patient demand and institutional buying suggests a potential inflection point in early 2026. For investors, the path forward requires disciplined risk management, a focus on structural demand drivers, and a willingness to capitalize on volatility as the market resets.