XTZ -56.21% Year-to-Date Amid Broader Market Downturn

On OCT 30 2025, XTZ dropped by 0.25% within 24 hours to reach $0.5645, representing a continued slide in the asset’s value. Over the 7-day period, XTZ fell by 7.06%, while the 30-day timeframe saw a drop of 15.74%. The most dramatic decline was observed over the past year, where XTZ has fallen by 56.21%, reflecting broader market pressures and a lack of short-term buyer support.

The price action underscores a bearish sentiment across the token, with all timeframes reinforcing a deteriorating trend. While daily movements can be attributed to routine market fluctuations, the weekly and monthly declines suggest a more entrenched downward shift in investor sentiment. This pattern is often seen in assets experiencing a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and internal development delays or unmet expectations.

Technical indicators have also deteriorated. The RSI stands at an oversold level, which could signal a potential rebound, but without a corresponding increase in volume or a breakout above key resistance levels, the likelihood of a sustained reversal remains low. The 50- and 200-day moving averages have both trended downward, with the price failing to cross above the 50-day line—a key bullish signal that has yet to materialize.

Market participants are closely watching the support level at $0.54, a critical threshold that, if breached, could trigger further declines. A continued slide could also test the psychological level of $0.50, potentially leading to broader sell-offs among altcoins that have not demonstrated strong fundamentals or use-case driven demand.

Given the technical setup and price history, a backtesting approach could offer insights into how similar assets behaved under comparable conditions. This could provide a framework to assess potential support and resistance levels, as well as entry and exit strategies.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the potential behavior of XTZ, a backtesting strategy can be constructed using the decline of -56.21% over a 12-month period as a reference point. This metric mirrors the decline seen in certain equities during similar downturns.

For the backtest, we consider the ticker of interest to be the same as the one experiencing a -56.21% trailing 12-month return. The event definition will be treated as a single dated event at the end of the period, not as a recurring condition. This approach isolates the asset's behavior at the trough of its decline, offering a snapshot of historical reactions.

The backtest will focus on two key elements: the asset’s price response following the event and the volume pattern. By identifying recurring trends post-decline, the strategy can be refined to capture potential bounce scenarios. The results will help determine if XTZ has historically followed similar patterns and whether these patterns suggest a short-term bottom or the beginning of a longer bearish phase.