XRPJPY Market Overview: September 20, 2025

• XRPJPY declined from 447.19 to 441.23 over 24 hours, with a bearish reversal near 443.32.
• Volume surged to 34,808.4 at 14:15 ET, signaling increased bearish participation.
• RSI and MACD indicate moderate momentum with oversold conditions emerging.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price near the lower band.
• A bullish retracement to 443.43 suggests potential short-term resistance ahead.

XRPJPY opened at 446.39 at 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of 447.19, and closed at 443.32 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 440.0. Total volume over 24 hours was 437,106.2, and notional turnover was ¥194,086,985.8. Price showed a bearish bias after an initial bullish attempt, with bearish divergence in volume and price at 14:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a bearish continuation after a failed bullish reversal at 447.19. A notable doji formed at 22:45 ET, signaling indecision near 444.74. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 09:00 ET–09:15 ET, as price closed at 442.98 after opening at 444.8. Key support appears at 441.47, with a potential double-bottom formation forming if this level holds.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price is trading below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which are aligned bearishly. The 20SMA is at ~443.8, and the 50SMA is at ~444.2. Daily averages (50DMA at 444.5, 100DMA at 445.3, 200DMA at 445.8) suggest a bearish bias over the longer term, with the 38.2% Fib level aligning with the 50DMA at ~444.2.

MACD & RSI

MACD is negative with a bearish crossover and decreasing momentum, indicating the downtrend could persist. RSI is currently at 33, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the divergence between RSI and price action implies caution—RSI could fail to rebound as volume weakens, indicating bearish exhaustion may not yet be complete.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly following the 14:15 ET candle, as price dropped to 441.23 amid high volume. Price is currently near the lower Bollinger Band, which is at ~441.8, indicating a high volatility environment. A bounce off the lower band could be expected, but confirmation of a reversal would require a close above the 443.43 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 14:15 ET with a volume of 34,808.4 and a turnover of ¥15,296,009.2, but price continued to fall, indicating bearish confirmation rather than a reversal. Divergence between volume and price was seen during the early recovery attempt from 02:30–03:30 ET, where price rose but volume declined. This suggests weak conviction in the upward movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (447.19 to 440.0), key levels at 38.2% (~444.2) and 61.8% (~441.7) are currently testing demand. The 61.8% level aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and could act as a pivot point. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retrace of the YTD move is at 443.1, which may provide near-term support or resistance depending on the following 24-hour action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves a mean-reversion approach, using the 38.2% Fibonacci level and lower Bollinger Band as entry triggers, confirmed by a bullish engulfing or hammer candlestick pattern. Stops are placed below the 61.8% Fib level, and take profits are at the 50% Fib level. The current price action appears to be setting up for a potential short-term bounce from 441.47, offering an opportunity to test this strategy under current volatility.

Forward-Looking View

XRPJPY could see a short-term rebound off the 441.47 support and test the 443.43 resistance. However, a failure to hold above 442.5 could extend the decline. Traders should monitor volume and RSI divergence for signs of exhaustion in either direction. Risk remains to the downside in the near term.