XRPJPY Market Overview

Summary
• XRPJPY surged past ¥370, posting a 24-hour high of ¥382.04 amid strong volume tailwinds.
• Price consolidated near ¥370–375, with key Fibonacci support at ¥362.15 and resistance at ¥377.42.
• High-volume bullish divergence suggests strong buyer participation post-¥360.56 breakout.

XRPJPY, the XRP-to-JPY pair, opened at ¥355.60 on 2025-11-09 at 17:00 ET and closed at ¥379.60 on 2025-11-10 at 05:30 ET, reaching a high of ¥382.04 and a low of ¥353.64. The 24-hour volume amounted to 3.49 million XRP, while notional turnover reached ¥1.19 billion, reflecting heightened market interest and activity.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data revealed a strong bullish bias, particularly after the breakout from ¥360.56. A series of higher highs and higher lows developed from 23:15 ET onward, with a key bullish engulfing pattern forming at ¥362.29–¥364.61. A doji formed at ¥362.8–363.36, signaling a potential consolidation phase. The 382.04 high may mark the top of a short-term swing; key support levels now include ¥370.19 (61.8% Fib), ¥365.04 (38.2% Fib), and ¥362.15 (major swing low).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish, with the 20 MA above the 50 MA. The 50-period MA is currently around ¥365.50, and the 20 MA is near ¥371.00. This bullish crossover suggests continued momentum in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is around ¥358.00, the 100-period at ¥352.50, and the 200-period at ¥349.00, indicating that price is well above all long-term averages and in a strong uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the late evening, forming a bullish golden cross. The histogram has been expanding, confirming growing bullish momentum. The RSI currently stands at ~68, indicating the asset is approaching overbought territory. While this may suggest a pullback, the sustained volume and higher highs suggest that the uptrend could continue.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded as the rally progressed, with price trading near the upper band at several points. A volatility contraction was observed earlier in the day, followed by a sharp breakout and expansion. Price remains well above the 20-period moving average, suggesting continued bullish bias, though caution is advised if the RSI fails to confirm the next push above ¥377.42.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was consistently strong, particularly during the rally from ¥362.29 to ¥382.04, with several 15-minute candles showing volumes exceeding 200,000 XRP. Notional turnover spiked to ¥381.88 million during the final hour of the 24-hour window. Volume and price action are aligned, indicating strong conviction in the bullish move. A divergence could indicate distribution, but for now, the pattern remains strong.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the most recent leg up from ¥353.64 to ¥382.04 shows key Fibonacci retracement levels at ¥365.04 (38.2%), ¥370.19 (61.8%), and ¥375.96 (extension level). Price is currently testing the 61.8% retracement level as a potential consolidation point. A breakdown below ¥370.19 could see a retest of ¥362.15 before the trend is considered to have paused.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy aims to assess the predictive power of MACD-based signals for XRPJPY, with particular focus on identifying golden-cross events as potential buy opportunities. Given the absence of precomputed MACD data for the exact ticker “XRPJPY.UDC,” the next logical step would be to either confirm the correct ticker or proceed with local computation from the available OHLCV data. If the correct ticker is confirmed, we can derive the MACD and signal line using standard 12,26,9 parameters, then overlay golden-cross detection logic to evaluate its effectiveness in predicting trend reversals or continuations between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-10. Alternatively, if the pair is not available, we may use XRPUSD with a note that fiat cross rates may affect price levels but not the timing of the signals.