XRP Volatile After 315% Rally, SEC Lawsuit Dropped, Price Drops 16.5%

XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple, has experienced a tumultuous period, marked by a 315% rally over the past year followed by a 20% decline in the past month. The recent volatility has left the token struggling to maintain its momentum in 2025. The uncertainty surrounding XRP's future has been exacerbated by regulatory concerns and waning institutional interest.

On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had dropped its lawsuit over an alleged $1.3 billion unregistered securities offering. This news initially sparked a brief rally, with XRP climbing to $2.55. However, the token has since corrected by nearly 16.5%, slipping back to $2.12 at the time of reporting.

As XRP continues to grapple with its current range, an AI-powered prediction tool has provided an updated forecast for the cryptocurrency's performance by April 30, 2025. According to the AI model, the average price target for XRP is projected to be $2, suggesting a flat projection from current levels and limited short-term upside. This prediction is based on technical indicators and market trends, which currently point to a mixed outlook for the token.

Among the various AI models, Claude 3.5 Sonnet offers a mildly optimistic view, projecting a move toward $2.15. This model highlights bullish signals, such as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) remaining above the 200-day average (SMA200), indicating confidence in the token's long-term strength. Conversely, GPT-4o maintains a conservative stance, predicting no price change and holding firm at $2. This model points to a mixed technical picture, noting that while the SMA200 is trending upward, the SMA50 is now turning downward, showing weakening short-term momentum.

Looking ahead, XRP's near-term direction will largely depend on the potential approval of a U.S. XRP-spot ETF, with 18 applications currently submitted to the SEC. A green light from regulators could open the door to significant institutional inflows, pushing XRP toward higher price targets. Global macroeconomic conditions, including inflation data, central bank policies, and broader investor appetite for digital assets, will also remain crucial in determining XRP's future performance.

With supply-side factors creating additional headwinds, XRP's ability to reclaim and sustain key price levels will be critical in determining whether it can break out of its current range or remain under pressure through April. The recent AI prediction for the XRP price on April 30, 2025, suggests that the token could potentially reach as high as $4.26 by the end of April 2025. This forecast has led to a brief rally, with XRP climbing to $2.55 before correcting by nearly 16.5%, slipping back to $2.12 at the time of reporting.

Technical analysis indicates that XRP has formed a head and shoulders pattern, which typically points to further downside movements. However, a move above $3 could invalidate this bearish outlook. Analysts have also highlighted that the Golden Pocket retracement zone, representing the worst-case scenario for XRP, is between $1.15 and $1.30. If XRP experiences a deeper price correction, it could test these support levels.

Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts remain optimistic about XRP's potential. Projections suggest that XRP could rise to $3.50-$4.00 as adoption increases and regulatory clarity improves. Technical analysis also suggests that XRP could rally from its current $2 level to between $5 and $27 by June 2025, although near-term bearish sentiment presents challenges to this outlook.

Whale activity has also been a significant factor in recent price movements. Prominent analyst Ali Martinez revealed that whales offloaded 1.12 billion XRP coins, worth nearly $2.25 billion, in the past 48 hours alone. This large-scale selling activity suggests that whales may be preparing for a sharp sell-off, which could further pressure the price of XRP.

Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt has also weighed in on the situation, suggesting that the XRP price chart has formed a head-and-shoulder pattern. If the price fails to reclaim the $3 level, it could potentially see a decline to $1. However, the bulls may have one saving grace, as the XRP price has formed a bullish divergence in its 4-hour chart. If this pattern continues, it could send the XRP price to $3, invalidating Brandt's bearish prediction.

Investors are advised to avoid opening leveraged positions on XRP, especially heading into significant events such as Donald Trump’s April 2nd tariff deadline. Instead, they should wait for the asset to pick a direction. For instance, if XRP manages to flip the $2.25 support/resistance level, it could pave the way for investors to go long on the asset. On the contrary, dips below the $1.70 level are excellent buying opportunities, especially since experts remain convinced that the next crypto bull run is on the horizon and could start as early as mid-April.