El potencial de valoración del XRP en la era posterior a SWIFT: El efecto del multiplicador de liquidez y sus implicaciones para el precio y el capitalización de mercado

The global financial landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as institutions increasingly adopt blockchain-based solutions to optimize cross-border payments. At the forefront of this transformation is XRP, the native asset of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), which has emerged as a formidable liquidity multiplier in a post-SWIFT era. With its ability to facilitate near-instant, low-cost transactions, XRP is redefining the economics of global remittances and institutional liquidity management. This analysis explores how XRP's unique properties-coupled with growing institutional adoption-position it to capture a significant share of the $150 trillion annual cross-border payment market, potentially driving exponential growth in its valuation.

XRP's Liquidity Metrics: A Foundation for Scalability

XRP's utility as a bridge currency is underpinned by robust liquidity metrics. In Q1 2025, XRP averaged ~$3.2 billion in daily trading volume on major exchanges, reflecting deep market depth and institutional demand. The XRP Ledger itself is engineered for high throughput, processing 1,500+ transactions per second with settlement times of 3–5 seconds. This dwarfs traditional systems like SWIFT, where settlement can take hours to days, even with SWIFT gpi's accelerated processing.

The cost advantage is equally compelling. XRP transactions incurred fees averaging $0.0002, a stark contrast to SWIFT's $26–$50 per transaction costs. For institutions, this translates to a capital-efficient model where XRP can be used as a temporary liquidity vehicle without the need for pre-funded nostro accounts. Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service, which leverages XRP to enable real-time cross-border settlements, has already processed $1.3 trillion in volume through Q2 2025.

The Liquidity Multiplier Effect: Compounding Demand Through Network Growth

The liquidity multiplier effect describes how XRP's usage in cross-border payments generates compounding demand for the asset. Each transaction locks a small amount of XRP in the network, effectively reducing circulating supply while increasing utility-driven demand. This dynamic is amplified by ODL's adoption: as more financial institutions integrate RippleNet, the volume of XRP transacted grows exponentially.

For example, if XRP captures 14% of SWIFT's $150 trillion annual volume- projected to reach $21 trillion annually-this would necessitate a liquidity pool of approximately $700 billion to support such transactions. Assuming 30 annual token turnovers (a reasonable estimate given XRP's high throughput), this would imply a market cap of ~$700 billion, translating to a price of ~$11.90 per XRP token. Such a scenario hinges on XRP's ability to maintain its role as a preferred bridge currency, a position it has solidified through partnerships with institutions like AMINA Bank and its integration into high-volume corridors such as Asia-Middle East and Southeast Asia-Africa.

Institutional Adoption and ETFs: A Catalyst for Price Resilience

Recent developments have further bolstered XRP's institutional appeal. The resolution of the SEC lawsuit in August 2025 allowed XRP to return to U.S. exchanges, erasing regulatory uncertainty and spurring a surge in ETF inflows. By mid-2025, XRP ETFs had absorbed $1.3 billion in institutional capital, with 43 consecutive days of positive flows. Notably, this occurred despite a 15% price decline in December 2025, underscoring the asset's resilience to short-term volatility.

Major asset managers, including Franklin Templeton and Grayscale, have positioned XRP as a strategic addition to diversified portfolios, citing its role in cross-border payments and its low correlation to traditional crypto assets. This institutional backing is critical for sustaining XRP's liquidity multiplier effect, as it ensures a steady influx of capital to support growing transaction volumes.

Projected Market Cap and Price: A Post-SWIFT Valuation Model

To estimate XRP's long-term valuation, we can apply a simple liquidity-based model. If XRP captures 14% of SWIFT's $150 trillion annual volume, the required liquidity pool would be $21 trillion * (XRP's share of transaction costs). Assuming XRP's transaction fees remain at $0.0002, the total value locked in the network would approach $700 billion-a figure that aligns with the market cap projections derived from the liquidity multiplier effect.

This model assumes a stable price environment and continued adoption of ODL. However, even a conservative 5% capture of SWIFT's volume would necessitate a $250 billion liquidity pool, implying a price of ~$4.30 per XRP token. Given the current trajectory of institutional adoption and the growing inefficiencies of traditional systems, these projections are not speculative but rather a logical extrapolation of XRP's utility-driven demand.

Conclusion: A Paradigm Shift in Global Payments

XRP's valuation potential is inextricably tied to its role as a liquidity multiplier in a post-SWIFT era. By enabling real-time, low-cost cross-border settlements, XRP is not only disrupting legacy systems but also creating a self-reinforcing cycle of demand and price appreciation. As institutions increasingly prioritize capital efficiency and speed, XRP's market share in global payments is poised to expand, driving its price and market cap toward multi-hundred-billion-dollar thresholds. For investors, this represents a unique opportunity to participate in a foundational shift in global finance-one where blockchain-based liquidity is no longer a disruption but a necessity.